futures market

COT Blue: Reflation Doubts Accumulate

By |2018-07-11T11:34:13+00:00July 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I doubt there will be an official report created and published surrounding the events of May 29. Unlike those on October 15, 2014, which did trigger a Treasury Department alphabet-soup-of-partners response, it wasn’t crashy enough this time around. The UST market experienced a true panic more than three and a half years ago, though one [...]

COT Blue: A Decade of Weird

By |2018-03-16T16:17:47+00:00March 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On July 15, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sat in front of Congress for the second of his required Humphrey-Hawkins reports for that year. The original act meant for these to be more than bland economic obfuscation, where the original Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 demanded monetary targets. The Fed stopped [...]

COT Blue: Interest In Open Interest

By |2018-02-07T16:15:31+00:00February 7th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For me, the defining characteristic of the late nineties wasn’t the dot-coms. Most people were exposed to the NASDAQ because, frankly, at the time there was no getting away from it. It had seeped into everything, transforming from a financial niche bleeding eventually into the entire worldwide culture. We all remember the grocery clerks who [...]

COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

By |2017-09-11T18:53:13+00:00September 11th, 2017|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some [...]

It’s Truly Nothing Like It Was Supposed To Be

By |2016-10-24T17:47:00+00:00October 24th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Earlier this year it was reported that a great many OPEC nations were on track to repay China in oil rather than “dollars.” Reuters had calculated that between $30 and $50 billion of prior loans were to be closed out via each country’s crude capacities. As the price of the black stuff has dropped, however, [...]

Converting Into The (So Far) Broken Correlation

By |2016-05-27T17:12:13+00:00May 27th, 2016|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese exchange rate has traded lower for five consecutive days, and aside from essentially no change last Friday would have been eight in a row. That contrasts with the downward pattern that existed ever since the turn in mid-April where only the general direction was down in not so much a straight line. The [...]

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