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Prices As Curative Punishment

By |2022-06-10T18:14:54-04:00June 10th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t exactly a secret, though the raw data doesn’t ever tell you why something might’ve changed in it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed by industry sources, US new car sales absolutely tanked in May 2022. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.7 million, it was a quarter fewer than sales put down in May 2021 and [...]

Is It Being Demanded?

By |2022-05-26T19:40:07-04:00May 26th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Shipping container rates have been dropping since early March – right around the time when we had just experienced our “collateral days” and then stood by to witness chaotic financial fireworks, inversions, the whole thing. The bane of the logistical supply-side snafu-ing, it has been container redistribution mucking the goods economy up. The recent and sharp decline in container rates, [...]

Shipping Around Retail ‘Inflation’

By |2022-05-17T20:11:05-04:00May 17th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This whole “inflation” scenario isn’t really that difficult to piece together, effect from cause. Sure, Jay Powell’s trying to nuke it by hiking the federal funds rate, but no one really uses fed funds and the problem isn’t the unsecured cost of borrowing bank reserves (not money) that are literally overflowing. For one, the FOMC’s efforts aren’t going to get [...]

Crude Contradictions Therefore Uncertainty And Big Volatility

By |2022-05-13T17:59:34-04:00May 13th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This one took some real, well, talent. It was late morning on April 11, the crude oil market was in some distress. The price was falling faster, already down sharply over just the preceding two weeks. Going from $115 per barrel to suddenly less than $95, there was some real fear there.But what really caught my attention was the flattening [...]

Not Good Goods

By |2022-04-18T17:56:44-04:00April 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The goods economy in the United States is – maybe was - the lone economic bright spot. That in and of itself should’ve provoked more caution, instead there was the red-hot recovery to sell under the cover of supply shock pricing changes. The sheer spending on goods, and how they arrived, each unabashedly artificial from the get-go.Combine those two factors, [...]

The Historic Christmas Binge

By |2022-01-14T17:00:05-05:00January 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The reason that store shelves are occasionally empty, as any social media hashtag trend will tell you, is that Americans are still buying an amazing amount of goods. For December 2021, Christmas was hardly canceled. The Census Bureau today reported that retailers during the biggest month of last year, of every year, grabbed an astoundingly huge $714 billion in overall [...]

The Higher The CPI, The Less For Inflation

By |2021-12-10T17:39:10-05:00December 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It hurts, so people want to know what to blame. Who should they punish for inflicting their pain? Enter human bias and the emotional processing of preconceived conclusions, “inflation” is no longer a topic which can be discussed rationally. A statistical weapon instead to be wielded attempting to settle other debates.Joe Biden did it. No, this is a Biden Boom, [...]

How Can A CPI Now Above Six Price Like This?

By |2021-11-10T17:51:53-05:00November 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS said today its Consumer Price Index rose by 6.2% in October 2021 when compared to October 2020. This was the largest annual increase since Alan Greenspan was giving up on M2 three decades ago. Perhaps most concerning, after having taken a few months “off” prices re-accelerated last month reigniting fears of a 70s-style monetary runaway.But, as we saw [...]

Perfect Time To Review What Is, And What Is Not, Inflation (and why it matters so much)

By |2021-10-13T17:23:26-04:00October 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is costing more to live and be, so naturally people are looking for who it is they need to blame. Maybe figure out some way to stop it. You know and feel for the basics since everyone’s perceptions begin with costs of just living. This is what makes the subject of inflation so difficult, even more so in the [...]

The Consensus

By |2021-04-16T19:51:39-04:00April 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With government cash being shoveled into personal and corporate bank accounts, US consumers have reported that they are being more optimistic about the state of the economy. Before that, they went on a spending binge as stated unequivocally by historic retail sales figures. Why, then, so much higher spending than improved happiness and certainty while going about it?The University of [...]

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