Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

The Race We All Lose

By |2018-08-03T17:48:41+00:00August 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2015, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal. Pedigree matters, a fact easily established by how easy it is for central bankers and former central bankers to have their thoughts published in any mainstream outlet of their choosing. Record doesn’t mean so much, performance on [...]

The Populist Revolt; Now Mexico

By |2018-07-02T19:23:32+00:00July 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mexico will have a new President on December 1. Falling short in each of the prior two elections, Andrés Manuel López Obrador won convincingly this time. Though a thorough leftist, AMLO, as he is called in Mexico, ran on the familiar populist, anti-establishment topics. For yet another country its political background has shifted dramatically. Mexicans [...]

Dovish = Uncertain, Therefore Dollar

By |2018-06-15T17:17:56+00:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back a few months ago when Europe was booming, or at least everyone was sure that this one particular economy was, market futures prices indicated an expectation for the first European rate hike to take place by Q2 2019. That was consistent with the US Federal Reserve’s experience as well as how the mainstream narrative [...]

What Happens When The Dollar Double Whammy Lands On You (Again)

By |2018-06-05T18:06:18+00:00June 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A recent poll in Brazil showed that one-third of Brazilians favor “military intervention.” The country had been gripped by a crippling trucker’s strike, the results of which have been almost complete economic shutdown. Intervention, as it is softly termed, would be nothing less than a coup. The direct cause of the strike is quite simple. [...]