There were a great many ridiculous things we witnessed last year, but among them was the unshakable desire for the media and economists to label consumers and consumer spending as “strong” regardless of any other considerations. In most cases, whatever month-over-month change would seem positive, but it was so only in that very narrow view. Misunderstanding natural variation, they all [...]
Retail sales in September 2016 were mixed, though what I mean by that is importantly different than what it used to suggest. Before 2012, “mixed” results in accounts like retail sales indicated that there was some good, some concerning. After last year where retail sales were uniformly atrocious, “mixed” now means some components still that way, with some others just [...]
It follows that if we find production dropping into a two-year slump, sales are likely the cause. Retail sales continue to be just as stuck as the rest of the economy, an economic limbo between growth and recession with far more of recession than growth. After suffering one of the worst months in July, retail sales bounced back in August [...]
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