germany

The Conspicuous Consistency of Curves

By |2018-08-20T17:03:19+00:00August 20th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not that curves are flattening. It’s where they are. There’s really no mystery surrounding any of this. The “conundrum” arrives only when starting from the orthodox perspective; the one derived from Economists even though they don’t understand the bond market in the slightest. Short-term rates tend to “obey” central bank signals because central banks [...]

Just Who, Exactly, Is So Optimistic?

By |2018-07-26T18:41:45+00:00July 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

BNP Paribas is apparently calling for an epic rout in German bunds. According to Bloomberg (who else?) it’s a mini-revival of Bill Gross’ ill-fated tweet advertising the “short of a lifetime.” In April 2015, the man many called the bond king said it was going to be better than the pound in 1993. https://twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624 Gross [...]

When Sentiment Shifts

By |2018-07-10T16:36:44+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like all sentiment surveys, Germany’s ZEW is susceptible to overzealousness on the part of the survey participants. The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung is a think tank located in Manheim that has since 1991 carried out this broad questionnaire. Up to 350 analysts are included in the panel, each working at a bank, insurance carrier, or [...]

There Is Only One Global Trade War

By |2018-06-27T12:22:14+00:00June 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

IHS Markit reported last week that its composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded slightly in its first reading for June 2018. In January, the index had managed nearly 59, the highest in a very long time. It was taken as a definitive sign that Europe’s economy was not only booming, that boom was sustainable. Global [...]

ECB’s Turn For A Disappointing Account

By |2018-05-25T17:13:02+00:00May 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Earlier this week the FOMC published the minutes of its April policy meeting, disappointing “dovish” in them which more properly suggests skepticism about the state of economic affairs. Yesterday, it was the ECB’s turn. Releasing the “Account” of also its April gathering, Europe’s central bank began it by noting Germany’s federal securities. Specifically, it mentions [...]

Watching Imports

By |2018-05-04T16:25:58+00:00May 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US trade deficit, a sensitive political topic these days, declined sharply in March. It had expanded significantly (more deficit) in January and February, reaching nearly -$76 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the latter month, before posting -$68 billion in the latest figures. Exports rose while imports fell in March, making for the largest single month [...]

Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

By |2017-11-06T19:51:30+00:00November 6th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss. At [...]

Distinct Lack of Good Faith, Part ??

By |2017-10-17T18:52:06+00:00October 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a busy weekend in retrospect, starting with Janet Yellen and other central bankers uncomfortably facing a global media that has become (for once) increasingly unconvinced. Reporters, really, don’t have much choice. The Federal Reserve Chairman might not be aware of just how much she has used the “transitory” qualifier since 2015, but others [...]

Distinct Lack of Good Faith

By |2017-09-25T16:36:53+00:00September 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The erosion of social order in any historical or geographic context is gradual; until it isn’t. Germany has always followed a keen sense of this process, having experienced it to every possible extreme between the World Wars. Hyperinflationary collapse doesn’t happen overnight; it took three years for the Weimar mark to disintegrate, and then Weimar [...]