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Weekly Market Pulse: Where Are The Extremes?

By |2023-09-11T03:54:17-04:00September 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Every weekend I sit down at my desk and write the title of this post at the top of a legal pad. I make a list of everything I can identify as trading at an extreme in markets. If an investor is to make tactical changes to their portfolio, it is in the extremes where they will find their greatest [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Don’t Just Stand There!

By |2023-05-15T09:01:19-04:00May 15th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

What is long term? That's a question with many answers depending on your point of view. Some people might think a year is long term. I had a client tell me once that he was so old he didn't buy green bananas because he might not be around to eat them. Some might say 3 years is long term but [...]

Eurodollar Futures Interpretation Is Everywhere

By |2022-06-29T20:06:25-04:00June 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.From [...]

Nasty Number Five, Not Hawk Hiking CBs

By |2022-06-24T19:49:31-04:00June 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not recession fears, those are in the past. For much if not most (vast majority) of mainstream pundits and newsmedia alike, unlike regular folks this is all news to them (the irony, huh?) Economists and central bankers everywhere had said last year was a boom, a true inflationary inferno raging worldwide. For once, CPIs (or European HICPs) seemed to [...]

World Bank Tries Reconciling Rapidly Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-07T20:03:45-04:00June 7th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As it now stands, the World Bank isn’t currently forecasting recession sweeping across the globe. Instead, the organization is merely warning this is a growing possibility. Econometric models abhor making big changes to projections within small timeframes, yet the regressions employed here couldn’t be helped this time.Back in January, at the last issue of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, [...]

No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. Just Globally Synchronized.

By |2022-06-03T20:25:43-04:00June 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time. Something else is going on.In America, the [...]

Can’t Blame COVID For This One

By |2022-06-01T20:16:42-04:00June 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Late in March 2021, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a reverse. Several weeks before that time, Merkel’s federal government had reached an agreement with the various states to begin opening the country back up, easing more modest restrictions to move daily life closer to normal. But with case counts sharply rising once more, the whole thing was going to get [...]

Industrial Synchronized Demand

By |2022-05-10T20:05:48-04:00May 10th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]

All The Dead Horses, And All Powell’s Men, Can’t Make Sense of Europe – Again

By |2022-05-05T20:27:17-04:00May 5th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As a preface to this update ostensibly on Europe, it’s all really about Euro$ #5 sadly rounding into form. In this first part, I’m going to have resurrect the quotation marks surrounding the term “rate hikes”, or bring back RHINO (rate hikes in name only) given what’s going on in Treasury bills.Not rate hikes, or enough of them. Our dead [...]

China Then Europe Then…

By |2022-05-03T18:42:18-04:00May 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is the difference, though in the end it only amounts to a matter of timing. When pressed (very modestly) on the slow pace of the ECB’s “inflation” “fighting” (theater) campaign, its President, Christine Lagarde, once again demonstrated her willingness to be patient if not cautious. Why?For one thing, she noted how Europe produces a lot of stuff that, at [...]

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