germany

As the Data Comes In, 2019 Really Did End Badly

By |2020-02-11T19:33:47-05:00February 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The coronavirus began during December, but in its early stages no one knew a thing about it. It wasn’t until January 1 that health authorities in China closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after initially determining some wild animals sold there might have been the source of a pneumonia-like outbreak. On January 5, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a [...]

Two Years And Now It’s Getting Serious

By |2020-02-07T19:04:36-05:00February 7th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We knew German Industrial Production for December 2019 was going to be ugly given what deStatis had reported for factory orders yesterday. In all likelihood, Germany’s industrial economy ended last year sinking and maybe too quickly. What was actually reported, however, exceeded every pessimistic guess and expectation – by a lot. IP absolutely plummeted in the final month of 2019. [...]

COT Black: German Factories, Oklahoma Tank Farms, And FRBNY

By |2020-02-06T19:11:14-05:00February 6th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I wrote a few months ago that Germany’s factories have been the perfect example of the eurodollar squeeze. The disinflationary tendency that even central bankers can’t ignore once it shows up in the global economy as obvious headwinds. What made and still makes German industry noteworthy is the way it has unfolded and continues to unfold. The downtrend just won’t [...]

With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

By |2020-01-28T18:14:17-05:00January 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis). You can see it in how everything is framed. [...]

China’s Coronavirus Is The New Trade War

By |2020-01-27T19:38:32-05:00January 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to analysts and economists who watch these things, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index was expected to continue its rise. Having purportedly bottomed out back in September, like other sentiment indicators this one had been on the rebound, too, if, though, much less than those others (especially the “stimulus” loving ZEW). While maybe not suggesting the turnaround we had been [...]

Germany, Maybe Europe: No Signs Of The Bottom

By |2020-01-16T18:53:16-05:00January 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For anyone thinking the global economy is turning around, it’s not the kind of thing you want to hear. Germany has been Ground Zero for this globally synchronized downturn. That’s where it began, meaning first showed up, all the way back at the start of 2018. Ever since, the German economy has been pulling Europe down into the economic abyss [...]

Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

By |2020-01-13T18:57:41-05:00January 13th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October. That doesn’t sound like much, -1.8%, but apart from recent months this would’ve been the third worst [...]

Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

By |2020-01-09T19:37:31-05:00January 9th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is [...]

The Word Is: Protracted

By |2020-01-08T15:51:12-05:00January 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What relaunched Europe’s QE four months ago was the word “protracted.” Central bankers love its opposite, the term “transitory”, which they use quite often at every sign of a weakening economy. To be fair, economies ebb and flow all the time and we don’t want policymakers to jump at every minor swing one way or another. The problem, it seems, [...]

Lagarde Channels Past Self As To Japan Going Global

By |2019-12-12T18:09:03-05:00December 12th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As France’s Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde objected strenuously to Ben Bernanke’s second act. Hinted at in August 2010, QE2 was finally unleashed in November to global condemnation. Where “trade wars” fill media pages today, “currency wars” did back then. The Americans were undertaking beggar-thy-neighbor policies to unfairly weaken the dollar. The neighbor everyone though most likely to be sponged off [...]

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