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global dollar short

The Basis For The Changing Basis

By |2017-03-28T12:13:18-04:00March 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is simply the nature of modern Economics to get most things backward. Positive Economics particularly in the form of econometrics has been like a declaration of ignorance, where Economists have formally decided to try and understand as little as possible. If you know anything about statistics you know why, for the one thing that bogs down statistical equations and [...]

China And Reserves, A Straightforward Process Unnecessarily Made Into A Riddle

By |2017-03-07T18:01:05-05:00March 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that China reported a small increase in official “reserves” for February 2017 is one of the least surprising results in all of finance. The gamma of those reserves is as predictable as the ticking clock of CNY, in no small part because what is behind the changes in those balances are the gears that lie behind face of [...]

That Escalated Quickly (In Rumors)

By |2017-03-02T17:55:03-05:00March 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I honestly don’t know how much clearer it could possibly get. The mainstream continues to struggle to identify the causes of the “rising dollar” when in all cases it is decidedly simple. The more the dollar goes up, the more whatever counterparty country is paying for those dollars. The entire world is in a synthetic short position created decades ago, [...]

Time To Add Mexico?

By |2017-02-23T18:20:50-05:00February 23rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is Mexico about to go down the same road as China, Brazil, and so many others have the past few years? The more interesting question may be what took so long, if they are. Mexico’s central bank has been forced into action again, after interjecting itself last month supplying dollars directly to Mexican banks, as well as the same in [...]

Data Tick In November TIC

By |2017-01-18T18:37:53-05:00January 18th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

November was the month where global bonds, particularly sovereign bonds, were routed in synchronized liquidation. As such, we would expect to find among various data sources evidence to suggest a monetary “dollar” background consistent with that fact. What that has meant in the months (and last several years) leading up to it was the foreign official sector in overdrive “selling [...]

Currency Chaos (Con’t)

By |2017-01-17T15:58:12-05:00January 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are a great many great things afoot, so it might be understandable some transferred excitement (or dread) into the realm of global currencies. The British are set to leave the European Union, though nobody really knows what that means let alone what it might lead to. While the US was closed for MLK remembrances, sterling was all over the [...]

Pay Attention To The Pieces

By |2017-01-10T18:00:34-05:00January 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the groundhog can tell us the length of winter by simply appreciating his own shadow, China’s central bank can perform something of a similar exercise and interpretation about the global eurodollar condition. The panic response of the PBOC is to immediately peg its currency, CNY, whenever a global monetary storm of sufficient fury arrives. Thus, if the PBOC sees [...]

A Plea For Answers First

By |2017-01-09T19:41:27-05:00January 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For all the fuss about speculators in Hong Kong, China’s central bank doesn’t seem very capable of handling them. Last week the offshore RMB money rate was driven once more to ridiculous proportions, with conventional “wisdom” attributing it to intentional PBOC policy. That seemed to be the case on Thursday, where the overnight HIBOR rate (CNH) was 38.335%, but not [...]

CNH, Again

By |2017-01-05T17:00:23-05:00January 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are times when the illusion is understandable, if still an illusion. On days like today, it surely seems like the PBOC’s power and influence has been established and displayed. The overnight HIBOR rate (CNH) was pushed to a ridiculous 38.335%, the second highest on record. And given that “drain” of RMB from offshore Hong Kong, sure enough CNY rose [...]

‘Dollar’ Shortage Extended Into October Consistent With Current Global Money Indications

By |2016-12-16T16:49:19-05:00December 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese have been undergoing quite a bit of stress lately, with markets including stocks more likely to be in turmoil than not. In fixed income, the Finance Ministry was slightly shaken by a failed auction today, its first since summer 2015. Yesterday, government bond futures trading had to be suspended when the 10s and 5s experienced their largest drop [...]

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