JPY Joins EDM; End of Week Chart Dump

Brexit, Trump’s election, even the Bank of Japan rumored to be thinking helicopter. Last year was the year of thinking differently and therein was hope. No matter how many times some markets and especially media blindly accepted the “stimulus” or “recovery” judgments of economists over the years, by 2016 and the near-recession globally that accompanied…


A Plea For Answers First

For all the fuss about speculators in Hong Kong, China’s central bank doesn’t seem very capable of handling them. Last week the offshore RMB money rate was driven once more to ridiculous proportions, with conventional “wisdom” attributing it to intentional PBOC policy. That seemed to be the case on Thursday, where the overnight HIBOR rate…


CNH, Again

There are times when the illusion is understandable, if still an illusion. On days like today, it surely seems like the PBOC’s power and influence has been established and displayed. The overnight HIBOR rate (CNH) was pushed to a ridiculous 38.335%, the second highest on record. And given that “drain” of RMB from offshore Hong…


The ‘Mystery’ in TIC Is Likely Important Given These Big Numbers

The “first” part of the TIC data update for January was relatively straightforward, especially since the scale of the net transaction adjustments in both December and January really did match what happened in January (crossing into February). The Treasury Department’s estimate for foreign holdings of US dollar assets were nothing short of remarkable in all…