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The Solution Is To Stop Being Backward

By |2020-03-20T18:59:07-04:00March 20th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I knew long before they came out that it was going to be a shitshow, pardon my French. You don’t screw up that badly and let the worst global monetary crisis in four generations happen on your watch with it having been any other way. So, when the FOMC transcripts for 2008 finally came out early in 2014, I knew [...]

Not Exactly Paradox, Reflation In Oil Deflation In Copper

By |2018-07-11T16:49:36-04:00July 11th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PBOC really needn’t have conducted the last few of its RRR raises. By the time they were in the books, Chinese inflation was already well underway toward being tamed. Though their CPI wouldn’t register for a few more months still, peaking in July 2011, commodities had already turned decidedly downward. Copper went first, hitting its high on Valentine’s Day. [...]

China’s Seven Years Disinflation

By |2018-07-10T11:57:54-04:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In early 2011, Chinese consumer prices were soaring. Despite an official government mandate for 3% CPI growth, the country’s main price measure started out the year close to 5% and by June was moving toward 7%. It seemed fitting for the time, no matter how uncomfortable it made PBOC officials. China was going to be growing rapidly even if the [...]

If Sentiment Were A Currency

By |2015-04-08T16:50:18-04:00April 8th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The ECB having announced and then implemented at least some kind of QE plan, the entire economist community has adjusted their economic projections upward in uniform, flocking fashion. They haven’t had to make much of an adjustment because they never downgraded economic expectations much to begin with. That is why almost every news story about the economy (and not just [...]

Funding vs. Funding

By |2015-04-07T15:42:09-04:00April 7th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the fourth consecutive trading session, repo rates remain in an elevated state though there isn’t any obvious reason they are doing so. GC rates in all three classes were essentially unchanged from Monday, which leaves them unfamiliar with repo mechanics that existed prior to March 25. There was a sharp surge up to just shy of 25 bps (MBS) [...]

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