global money

What The Petroyuan Is Not

By |2018-02-20T17:05:43+00:00February 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In mainstream monetary convention, bank reserves are at the center of the monetary pyramid. They are the byproduct of any central bank policy which requires direct action. In the US system, they had been absent, however, until around 2008. The reason was the Federal Reserve’s belief that it didn’t require any change in the corresponding [...]

Textbook

By |2017-08-08T12:42:18+00:00August 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s export growth disappointed in July, only we don’t really know by how much. According to that country’s Customs Bureau, exports last month were 7.2% above (in US$ terms) exports in July 2016. That’s down from 11.3% growth in June, which as usual had been taken in the mainstream as evidence of “strong” or “robust” [...]

What Manufacturing Productivity Suggests About ‘Dollars’ And Stagnation

By |2017-07-25T16:42:35+00:00July 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a report released last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that Multi-Factor Productivity rose in only 21 of the 86 categories of the manufacturing industry in 2015. Unlike labor productivity which is more easily calculated, Multi-Factor Productivity measures attempt to take account of all business inputs (including labor). Capitalism is by its [...]

Unfortunately An ‘Official’ End To The Rising Dollar Isn’t More

By |2017-05-17T19:15:03+00:00May 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

TIC data confirms that “reflation” captured more than just pricing sentiment. It appears to have occurred in bank balance sheet activity, and related official sector UST transactions. As to the latter, official holdings of US$ assets did decline on net in March 2017, the latest figures, including more selling of UST’s. The scale of the [...]

Liquidity Risk Is Very Real And Really Not That Hard To Spot And Define

By |2016-08-23T18:46:00+00:00August 23rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Going back to Japan for a third time today (it is more than deserved), at least in the setup, the Financial Times on August 1 astutely picked up what the rest of the mainstream media missed about the last BoJ policy moves. They correctly judged the “dollar” intentions, but also that it wasn’t nearly enough, as [...]

Clues to the Origins And Stubbornness of the ‘Rising Dollar’

By |2016-08-23T13:27:39+00:00August 23rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On March 9, 2016, front month trading for Japanese government bond (JGB) futures was halted at 12:32 pm Tokyo time. Selling had become intense, tripping the Osaka Exchange’s dynamic circuit breaker. The total length of the halt was just 30 seconds, but fingers were already being pointed in the direction of the BoJ. More than [...]

The Helicopter Has Already Been Tested And, Surprising Nobody But Economists, It Failed Spectacularly

By |2016-07-19T11:42:21+00:00July 19th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most of what passes for modern monetary policy is nothing more than one assumption piled upon another (and then another, and so on). Taken for granted for so long, rarely are these unproven precepts ever challenged to justify themselves to the minimal standard of internal consistency, let alone prove discrete validity by parts. The latest [...]