It was one of those signals which mattered more than the seemingly trivial details surrounding the affair. The name MF Global doesn’t mean very much these days, but for a time in late 2011 it came to represent outright fear. Some were even declaring it the next “Lehman.” While the “bank” did eventually fail, and the implications of it came [...]
Ben Bernanke saw it even before he took over from Alan Greenspan. Like his “maestro”, however, Bernanke didn’t really know what to make of it. So, while early in 2005 Greenspan told of his version as an interest rate “conundrum”, his successor a month later tried to add more dimensions and details to the same puzzle via recognizing its clear, [...]
In 2005, Ben Bernanke kicked up quite a bit of controversy, or what qualifies as drama in the dry space of top-level Economics. It was Alan Greenspan who really started the conversation, practically begging for someone to offer an answer. Long-term interest rates were not behaving the way they were supposed to; the maestro’s true swan song was his “conundrum.” [...]
In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven. To keep China [...]
There is far too much shorthand in the study of the economy and markets. We take so many things for granted, we never really stop to ask if its appropriate that we should. The desire for quick rules of thumb is understandable enough given a complex world. There is probably nothing more in it than the economy and markets. It [...]
If it is a day ending in “y” you can be sure there is somewhere in the financial press a story or “news report” of the looming bond selloff – even if it is due to some future event or made up phenomenon. Today’s is another in the series this time using a dramatized setup for technical analysis. A three [...]
While I commend the mainstream media for refraining the past few months from their orthodox tendencies to shout BOND ROUT!!! every time long Treasury yields rise for more than a few days at a time, that doesn’t mean the total absence of the ridiculous. With the long end once again trending lower in nominal yields, the curve has utterly collapsed [...]
It’s such an obvious thing, so maybe that is why no one mentions it. I doubt that is the reason, however, because doing so isn’t a mystery so much as narrowing down suspects. That is why when talking about the so-called natural rate of interest, or R* (r-star), the issue is (intentionally) cloaked in the language of the very long [...]
When Apple introduced the first iPhone in January 2007, the 8 gig model retailed for $599. The company cut the price to $399 that September in an alliance with AT&T. The 8 gig iPhone 3G that debuted in July 2008, just eighteen months later, was set at $199, and less than a year after that was suggested to retail at [...]
As the yield curve flattened out almost in a straight line from late 2013 until July 2016, it became common to suggest the historical relationship between inversion and recession. While that may still be a valid interpretation, as the yield curve ultimately did not invert and the US did avoid falling fully into recession, it misses the far more important [...]
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