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global trade

February US Trade Disappoints

By |2017-04-04T11:56:33-04:00April 4th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The oversized base effects of oil prices could not in February 2017 push up overall US imports. The United States purchased, according to the Census Bureau, 71% more crude oil from global markets this February than in February 2016. In raw dollar terms, it was an increase of $7.3 billion year-over-year. Total imports, however, only gained $8.4 billion, meaning that [...]

Same Country, Different Worlds

By |2017-03-09T17:27:11-05:00March 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

To my mind, “reflation” has always proceeded under false pretenses. This goes for more than just the latest version, as we witnessed the same incongruity in each of the prior three. The trend is grounded in mere hope more than rational analysis, largely because I think human nature demands it. We are conditioned to believe especially in the 21st century [...]

US Trade Skews

By |2017-03-08T11:54:15-05:00March 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US trade statistics dramatically improved in January 2017, though questions remain as to interpreting by how much. On the export side, US exports of goods rose 8.7% year-over-year (NSA). While that was the highest growth rate since 2012, there is part symmetry to account for some of it. Exports in the latter half of 2015 and for that first month [...]

No China Trade Interpretations

By |2017-02-10T12:50:37-05:00February 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China does not publish any of the big three data series (Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment) for the month of January. It combines January data with February data because of the large distortions caused by Lunar New Year holidays. Unlike Western holidays that are but a single day, the Golden Week [...]

More Positive Numbers In Trade

By |2017-02-07T12:50:07-05:00February 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US exports grew by 5.6% year-over-year (NSA) in December, the fourth gain in the past five months. It was the highest growth rate since October 2013. On the incoming trade side, imports advanced 2.4% year-over-year after rising 5.1% in November. Those were the first consecutive monthly increases since the last two months of 2014. The trade figures add further evidence [...]

A Five-year Further Slump Won’t/Can’t Be Cured Overnight

By |2016-12-13T18:21:12-05:00December 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When US exports were reported a few months ago to have risen (slightly) in August 2016, it was widely expected that that increase was the start of many to follow. It was, after all, the first positive number on the export side since the end of 2014 after more than a year and a half of nothing but contraction. In [...]

Chinese Trade Revisits

By |2016-12-08T18:13:31-05:00December 8th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s trade statistics were improved in November, further fueling the global “reflation” dreams. Imports rose 6.7% year-over-year, the second increase in the past four months (August) and the best since September 2014. Exports were nearly flat, up the tiniest fraction, 0.1%. That was the second time this year exports were positive. Again, these numbers have been very well received: “The [...]

The No Growth In US Trade Does Matter

By |2016-11-30T16:49:14-05:00November 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While certain markets continue to dream of the economy that might be, we continue to be stuck with the economy that continues to be nothing like it. Last week the Census Bureau reported that exports fell slightly year-over-year in September 2016 after rising slightly in August for the first positive number in two years. On the import side, marginal US [...]

Right There In The Numbers

By |2016-11-08T16:15:51-05:00November 8th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In early November 2012, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s exports were figured by the Customs Bureau to have been about $175.57 billion for October that year. It represented a year-over-year increase of 11.5% which only sounds good as compared to the economy that followed. The rate was down sharply from recovery-like growth that everyone had expected would [...]

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