The ultimate lesson for learning not to rely on one quarter of GDP growth was actually two quarters. In the middle of 2014, GDP posted back-to-back gains that at the time seemed nothing less than fantastic. Even with residual seasonality revisions and new benchmarks, those two quarters remain prominent landmarks in an otherwise bleak landscape. And that is the whole [...]
Last year, the usual rebound in GDP was flipped. Q1’s are, or were before “residual seasonality”, the low mark followed by some surge at some point. In 2015, it was Q2 that originally jumped, hitting almost 4% in the original estimates. What followed in Q3 was frustration, as GDP was first figured to be only 1.5%. It was disappointing but [...]
Maybe it is just too complicated to do much more, but for the most part central banks work in the here and now. They may stray from time to time into strategic thinking, but given the mathematical limitations of traditional statistics, weaknesses we all know too well in 2016, that is of limited value. Even in normal times monetary policy [...]
If you are not an economist bound by dogma, or a member of the media forbidden from using opinion of all but the finest (sounding) credentials, there is no mystery. I am as tired of writing about it as you are of reading it. The mainstream is by convention of the business cycle forced into linear extrapolations. Therefore, economic accounts [...]
The “rising dollar” has been much less disruptive since February 11. In terms of the real economy, since “rising dollar” is a euphemism for “dollar” shortage we would expect trade and especially international trade to be most affected by it where “dollars” are the primary global currency. A pause in “dollar” disruption, at least outwardly as direct disorder, should allow [...]
There can be little doubt now outside of orthodox economics that the global economy is actually slowing, not accelerating as has been predicted. Economists themselves, however, continue to claim that things are getting better when the data strongly suggests otherwise. The latest depressing figures are from a pair of (orthodox) supranational organizations. First, the World Trade Organization (WTO) drastically reduced [...]
Chinese oil imports surged again in August to the equivalent of 7.77 million barrels per day (mbpd). That was significantly more than July’s pace of 7.35 mbpd, and up an astounding 1.5 mbpd from August 2015. It was the highest rate of oil imports since April. The demand for commodities hasn’t been limited to just crude oil, as coal imports [...]
In 2015 the combination of the “weaker” euro against the dollar as well as the fact that monetary “stimulus” in Europe accomplished even less than that here meant that for the first time since 1961 France was not Germany’s largest trading partner. Exports to the United States finally surpassed those to its close European neighbor. When the statistics showing the [...]
Speaking yesterday in Reno, Nevada, San Francisco Fed President (and CEO) John C. Williams delivered remarks on the normalization of monetary policy. So as not to put the cart before the horse, Williams noted that first the economy must do so before the FOMC can even consider the same for their self-assigned tasks. I’ll start with a quick overview of [...]
The simple fact of the matter is that 2012 wasn’t supposed to happen. By every orthodox prediction and theory about the set of tools deployed after the Great Recession (after it, the first clue) there was no reason to suspect anything but the usual cyclical occurrences. Sure, the recovery would be weak because the recession large, but retrenchment was never [...]
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