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global turmoil

LMCI: Not Yet Finished

By |2017-01-09T18:43:11-05:00January 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With two months of an increasing index, the Federal Reserve’s alternate, comprehensive factor model for the labor market turned negative again for December 2016. The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) was down 0.3 points after gaining an upwardly revised 2.1 in November. Though there are 19 components in the overall index, the lackluster headline number for the Establishment Survey as [...]

What Happens Overseas Doesn’t Necessarily Stay Overseas

By |2016-11-16T18:39:29-05:00November 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In another case of government meeting reality, Saudi Arabia sacked its long-serving Finance Minister at the end of October. In a move reminiscent of the recent shakeup in Beijing’s Finance Ministry, with longstanding technocrat Lou Jiwei being ousted, Saudi Arabia has had to face up to more than just oil prices. Ibrahim al-Assaf had been in that position since 1996, [...]

Anything Different

By |2016-11-09T17:04:20-05:00November 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When I first started some years ago, the guy I worked for told me to prepare myself because this business is so often just stupid. It does make sense given the high stakes and pressure, where everybody is literally trying to outsmart everybody else every minute of every day. And those kinds of conditions, variable as they are, lead to [...]

Uncomfortably Familiar

By |2016-06-16T18:10:12-04:00June 16th, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is all starting to look very familiar and predictably so: Especially this: It is utterly extraordinary that the June 2023 eurodollar futures contract closed trading at 98.00, much less than on February 11 and a collapse of more than 150 bps in anticipated 3M LIBOR seven years in the future just since last July. It is, again, entirely anticipated given the [...]

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