After the overdone debt ceiling/gov’t shutdown passed, gold was “released” from its interbank strangle and forward rates returned negative out to 3 months. The shortage was again prominent and gold prices began to adjust accordingly. They didn't get very far. Since November 1, right around the time dollar conditions began to tighten noticeably again, forward rates have been rising in [...]
We have finally seen positive forward rates in the gold markets, though it is too early to make any firm interpretations about the direction of gold prices. We can note that on August 27, forward rates began moving in the positive direction while gold prices hit their most recent high on August 28. It is suggestive of a short-term drop [...]
The only story for gold is the persistence of negative forward rates out to three months. That has not changed for three full weeks, an unprecedented string. To some, this is confirmation that gold is in short supply, while many others have been trying to rationalize negative GOFO as an unimportant victim of circumstance. Again, it bears repeating that GOFO [...]
There is a temptation to compare anything of note in financial markets to the panic of 2008. It is exceedingly easy to do, and considering the scale and scope of everything that went wrong all at the same time it is very likely that Autumn 2008 will remain the benchmark. That does not mean it is the sole measure of [...]
I delayed posting in its regular Sunday spot to see if there were any additional pressures in gold prices over the weekend. Sure enough, gold sold off again seemingly in tandem with Japanese financial events. Both gold and silver were sold hard right at the open, bringing in a morning London fix well below the April lows – before rallying [...]
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