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Looking More Like Next ‘Dollar’ Problem

By |2015-03-10T17:04:14-04:00March 10th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It is Tuesday which only means that whatever oil trading takes place today will be easily overwhelmed by whatever interpretation about inventory levels released tomorrow dominates. However, the last week has been interesting in the respect of a shift in the behavior of the futures curve for WTI. Up until then, almost all volatility was concentrated in the front months, [...]

Next Step In ‘Dollars’?

By |2015-02-24T17:20:36-05:00February 24th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I continue to believe that the Swiss National Bank’s action on January 15 opened a “release valve” of sorts inside the world of the global “dollar.” Prior to that day, heightened bearishness all throughout dollar-denominated credit dominated trading. That included funding markets, especially eurodollars. The eurodollar curve itself ignored almost everything else, including the FOMC switch to “patience” in December, [...]

The Reality of ‘Flow’

By |2015-02-11T13:13:45-05:00February 11th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

To many, the “strong dollar” will always be an economic condition. If the price of the dollar is rising, then it will be assumed, mostly by economists, to be a relative judgment in favor of domestic growth potential and reality. That view misses the very relevant fact that “dollars” are not necessarily of domestic origin or for domestic purposes. The [...]

Greece Never Left, And Might Never Yet

By |2015-02-09T16:57:09-05:00February 9th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The growing appeal toward unease about the terms of Greece’s ongoing strangulation is more than just a simple, fleeting sense of déjà vu. It is exactly the same process only pushed forward three years. At the height of the “last” challenge that began in earnest in 2010, and nearly re-ignited a global bank run (among only banks) for a second [...]

What Is A Dollar?

By |2015-01-21T12:48:38-05:00January 21st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We all have our own conceptions about money, as in many respects it is and should be deeply personal. Most people pay it little mind as all that matters is if our cars can be filled with gasoline and the local grocery store exchanges food for some ready and convenient method of payment. That used to be the primary focus [...]

Gold Does Seem To Suggest A Different Degree Of At Least Uncertainty

By |2015-01-20T19:21:17-05:00January 20th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The main problem with looking at the financial world from a “dollar” funding perspective is that there really is no such monolithic existence. The funding conditions in Russia may be very different than those of Swiss banks; they also may be far too similar. Given the impossibility of direct observation, being left outside and searching for interior clues that bubble [...]

And The ‘Dollar’ Nail

By |2015-01-13T18:21:11-05:00January 13th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In parallel to US$ credit markets, the “dollar” itself found a new and worsened degree of “tightness” right around December 1. The trend that was already in place, doing so much damage globally prior to about Thanksgiving, took another upward turn at the same time US credit markets may have completely given up on the dominant economic story. In other [...]

Taper Template Updated

By |2015-01-13T16:08:45-05:00January 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is more than a passing interest in the 1937 retrenchment or what amounted to a “depression within a depression.” Numerous large-scale similarities abound between what occurred in the middle of the 1930’s and what is shaping up in the middle of the 2010’s. That makes for reasonable study about the very core and basic elements of finance that seem [...]

Questions For 2015

By |2014-12-21T18:18:49-05:00December 21st, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Well, it's that time of year again, when all the pundits offer their crystal ball views of the coming new year. I don't usually participate in the prediction game and this year won't be any different. Like everyone else I wonder what the future holds but I know I have no special ability to predict how it might unfold. What [...]

No ‘Dollar’ Resolution

By |2014-12-15T18:35:26-05:00December 15th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The growing sense of an economic cliff is based on three major factors, all of them in massive markets as opposed to manipulated and ill-suited statistics. The most obvious are oil prices and the UST curve (and related curve mechanics) as they have turned to prices and shapes not seen since the worst of the last crisis. The third, “dollar” [...]

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