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No Reason To Toss Out Low Rates In The Inflation Debate: The Repo Rat Rate Fallacy

By |2021-05-24T17:49:19-04:00May 24th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A dead rat would’ve easily explained the foul odor, though it wouldn’t have ended the matter. The smell was real, the cause still yet to be identified in the mainstream view. For the bond market, anyway, it was a process of discovery which began with an unexpected stench of something much bigger and more profound than any single or simple [...]

Again?

By |2017-03-20T17:39:22-04:00March 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is more than interesting that Herbert Hoover has become the modern ideal of the liquidationist. In these very trying times, one is either that or a Keynesian, Hoover’s supposed opposite, an interventionist who believes there is no good in any recession or deflation at any time. To “prove” the superior foundations of the latter, the ideological associates of that [...]

Greek Butterfly Flaps The ‘Dollar’ Run

By |2015-09-30T13:12:29-04:00September 30th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Before embarking on the great unknown of Q4 2015, it makes sense to try to gain a little more clarity about Q3 2015. Specifically, the “dollar” run that blasted through China and opened the prospects for both an end to Fed/Yellen faithfulness and increasing uncertainty about the true nature of economy and finance globally began around July 6; a day [...]

More QE Non-neutrality

By |2015-07-29T16:35:24-04:00July 29th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The simple narrative about QE is drawn from what is believed a simple process. The central bank buys bonds and by doing so it is simply assumed to be an “extra” bid on bond prices; therefore interest rates fall in whatever issue is being targeted by QE. Even in the US, QE has had trouble with that simple relationship. Instead [...]

Rose Colored Glasses

By |2015-07-19T17:18:53-04:00July 19th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream. Edgar Allan Poe   All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power not truth. Friedrich Nietzsche   I was walking down the street wearing glasses when the prescription ran out. Steven Wright I think one of the [...]

Bailout – “the Greequel”

By |2015-07-19T16:55:03-04:00July 19th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

The Greek government, EU, IMF and ECB agreed to new terms for a third bailout. As I see it, there are two very important items for markets today. The Greek government will be selling assets to pay down debt and re-capitalize the banking sector. Creditors essentially accessed the Greek collateral they were seeking. In return, the European Commission will provide Euro [...]

Still The Same Greece, Still The Same Math

By |2015-07-08T12:58:06-04:00July 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In April 2008, Nassim Taleb was becoming a household name criticizing the quant dominance in finance. Bear Stearns had just failed and the entire edifice of mathematical order was still breaking down, as the last bastions of credit default swap “supply”, the monoline insurers, were still rumored to be heading for insolvency (while the nightly news focused on whether that [...]

‘Dollar’ Fault

By |2015-07-06T14:37:38-04:00July 6th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With Greece eliciting full uncertainty across the global financial complex, it isn’t unsurprising to see “dollar” proxies indicating tightness in almost uniform fashion. There isn’t as much a cascade, yet, as there had been in early October and early December last year, but the movement has finally coalesced. The “dollar” world had begun what looks in hindsight a slow turn [...]

Greece Calls Europe’s Bluff

By |2015-07-05T16:56:45-04:00July 5th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The analysts streaming across my screen last week all had the same opinion - Greece will vote yes, accept Europe's terms and stay in the Euro. Well, as I write this, the early polls prove, if nothing else, that one should beware of experts bearing consensus opinions. According to the headlines at all the major newspapers the Greeks have voted [...]

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