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Market Pulse: Presidential Portfolios

By |2024-01-16T08:57:36-05:00January 15th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

It's an election year and you know what that means. Yes, every four years we gather as a nation, a democratic nation, to decide which of the two candidates for President available to us is the least offensive. It isn't very democratic with just two options but that is the system that the politicians built to benefit...themselves and it's all [...]

Perspective On A New Year

By |2024-01-08T08:00:54-05:00January 7th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some perspective. In the day-to-day, week-to-week, movements of the markets it is easy to forget that we are investing with a timeline measured in years, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Some Things To Be Thankful For

By |2023-11-26T21:56:26-05:00November 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Dividend Stock Conundrum

By |2023-09-18T08:03:45-04:00September 17th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Everybody loves dividend stocks. Some prefer stocks with high dividend yields and some prefer stocks of companies that have grown their dividends consistently, but dividends are an essential component of many (we think it should be all) investors' portfolios. The two methodologies produce quite different portfolios but over the long run, they both perform very well on a total return [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Wrong Again

By |2023-09-05T06:54:24-04:00September 4th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn't kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers - former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard - said we'd need a recession and an unemployment rate of 6% to kill inflation. In the summer of last year, he said we'd need 5 years [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Positive Feedback Loop?

By |2023-08-14T08:40:34-04:00August 14th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. It has stalled a couple of times and moved sideways - consolidated in Wall Street technical speak - but the trend is obvious (see below). It seems only a matter of time before we break above the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Expect The Unexpected

By |2023-08-07T08:02:19-04:00August 7th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The stock market was down a little over 2% last week in what may be the start of a larger correction. Or not. Technically it is easy to make a case for a little more downside to the 50-day moving average, a total pullback of about 5%, and then a resumption of the uptrend. That's what happens in bull markets. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Recession 2025?

By |2023-07-10T10:24:10-04:00July 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate|

Why aren't we in recession yet? That's a question that has been asked often over the last year but with no real satisfying answer. I have my own beliefs on the subject, rooted in the distortions of COVID. (You can read about it in my latest Follow The Money piece) I think my explanation is a pretty good one but even [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Stocks Win The First Half

By |2023-07-03T07:18:54-04:00July 2nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first half of the year is over and despite a few bank failures and three more rate hikes by the Fed, stocks and bonds both managed to produce gains in the first six months of 2023. Growth stocks were the big winners as the market for most of the first half was trying to price in rate cuts before [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Signal To Noise Ratio

By |2023-06-05T07:31:51-04:00June 4th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The stock market surged last Friday after the employment report showed a gain of over 300k jobs while the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings fell to 4.3%. That was the popular explanation and it makes sense; continued economic growth and fading inflation pressures would certainly seem a big positive (although wages have little to do with the recent bout [...]

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