growth

Inflation As A Deeper Concept

The problem with talking about inflation, and there is a lot of it recently, is conflation. Modern measures and concepts about pricing mash together every kind and form to create something that doesn’t really mean what was intended. On the “up” side we have monetary debasement coupling with orthodox concepts of “pricing power” and thrown .. read more

Economists v. Bonds

By now the bond market is really starting to annoy all the “right” people. The bear flattening that has taken place since operational taper commenced is a direct contradiction to those that implore dismissal of recent GDP (after pleading quite the opposite during the inventory build last year). Mainstream, orthodox economists have settled that Q1 .. read more

Durable Goods Patterns

All economics and finance can be dissolved and distilled into analysis of patterns. Whether that takes the form of a hardened, quantitative approach or something more toward the “eye of the beholder” depends on many factors. I find it useful to blend the two to find compliments and, perhaps more importantly, divergences. Oftentimes the real .. read more

Confused Stasis

There was not much new to report in today’s durable goods estimates, consisting of largely the same we have seen since mid-2012. But that in and of itself is noteworthy, particularly as other indications point to similar patterns and analysis. In the past this has been called “scraping along the bottom”, but if recent history .. read more

Lowest Trade Since 2009

This post will include an excess of charts and graphs, ostensibly to put to rest any weather notions as well as highlight the macro component of what is clearly economic dysfunction. The beginning of 2013 was bad in its own right, but the excuses laid then pertained to QE’s lag (as well as winter grumbling). .. read more

Peering Beyond Conventions of Inventory and Inflation

The preliminary revisions to Q4 2013 GDP subtracted a significant portion off what was previously believed much more robust, thus making Q3 more and more of an outlier. We knew that 2013 (and even late 2012) had a very heavy inventory component, far more than is “typical”, and that observation survived these adjustments despite a .. read more

No Joy In Snowville

The only real noteworthy aspect of this morning’s retail sales report was the dramatic downward revisions to December. I’m not sure if the temperature readings have been similarly revised, given that it is now fashionable to correlate the two, but in either case the adjustment shaved off 85 bps of Y/Y growth for sales ex .. read more

Stall Speed Revisit

If the government shutdown ends in the near future, there will be a data dump unlike anything we have seen before. The September jobs report at the end of October the same time as retail sales and US imports/exports, etc. The backup in data crunching to fit survey results into seasonally adjusted output may delay .. read more