Confused Stasis

There was not much new to report in today’s durable goods estimates, consisting of largely the same we have seen since mid-2012. But that in and of itself is noteworthy, particularly as other indications point to similar patterns and analysis. In the past this has been called “scraping along the bottom”, but if recent history .. read more

Lowest Trade Since 2009

This post will include an excess of charts and graphs, ostensibly to put to rest any weather notions as well as highlight the macro component of what is clearly economic dysfunction. The beginning of 2013 was bad in its own right, but the excuses laid then pertained to QE’s lag (as well as winter grumbling). .. read more

Peering Beyond Conventions of Inventory and Inflation

The preliminary revisions to Q4 2013 GDP subtracted a significant portion off what was previously believed much more robust, thus making Q3 more and more of an outlier. We knew that 2013 (and even late 2012) had a very heavy inventory component, far more than is “typical”, and that observation survived these adjustments despite a .. read more

No Joy In Snowville

The only real noteworthy aspect of this morning’s retail sales report was the dramatic downward revisions to December. I’m not sure if the temperature readings have been similarly revised, given that it is now fashionable to correlate the two, but in either case the adjustment shaved off 85 bps of Y/Y growth for sales ex .. read more

Stall Speed Revisit

If the government shutdown ends in the near future, there will be a data dump unlike anything we have seen before. The September jobs report at the end of October the same time as retail sales and US imports/exports, etc. The backup in data crunching to fit survey results into seasonally adjusted output may delay .. read more

Using Less Is Not Growth

Because of the way GDP is calculated currently, the latest release on the US trade deficit is going to boost GDP slightly for Q2 (and just as likely will get canceled by a downward revision somewhere else). The logic and methodology is sound, but that does not mean it is a perfect measure. The fact .. read more

Again, Coming In Below 2008

Same story, different month. Durable goods are still running well-below 2008 comparisons, continung the run of bad numbers and trends. Headline durable goods were great due to a huge increase at Boeing, but the results outside of that were pretty much standard for 2013. While new orders continued a slight uptick in both durable goods .. read more

Trend-Cycle Theory, Hiding In Revision

It is nearly impossible to spot recession and economic weakness in real time through economic accounts alone. Because of the way economic estimates are gathered and, more importantly, calculated, they will always be “behind the curve” of economic trends as they shift from one state to the next. In other words, the Bureau of Economic .. read more