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Payrolls: Deadly Low

By |2018-08-03T13:00:17-04:00August 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economists say that the labor market is being restrained by secular factors, those outside of regular macro potential. These are opioid use, demographic changes toward an older population, and the downside effects of globalization as it alters the skills required by employers. Between drug addicts, retiring Baby Boomers, and lazy Americans who won’t go back to school, there is now [...]

The JOLTS of Drugs

By |2017-09-12T12:08:46-04:00September 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Princeton University economist Alan Krueger recently published and presented his paper for Brookings on the opioid crisis and its genesis. Having been declared a national emergency, there are as many economic as well as health issues related to the tragedy. Economists especially those at the Federal Reserve are keen to see this drug abuse as socio-demographic in nature so as to [...]

More Less Than Nothing, Labor Conditions

By |2017-05-16T17:30:54-04:00May 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite a lower calculated inflation rate for April 2017, Real Average Weekly Earnings were only just positive for the month year-over-year. As the CPI had moved higher on the base effects of oil prices, real earnings were forced negative in each of the three prior months. The reason is, as always, no acceleration in nominal wages or earnings. None. Given [...]

Just Not Down As Much

By |2017-05-10T16:31:37-04:00May 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is one of those things that will never be stated outright, nor does there exist the kind of unassailable proof that would convict in any legal sense. Regardless, monetary officials here and elsewhere are clearly trying to have it both ways. They know very well what is driving inflation rates upward of late, and it isn’t monetary policy success. [...]

Getting JOLTS

By |2017-05-10T10:40:07-04:00May 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consistent with the LMCI, the JOLTS data series suggests very little has changed. There are two crossover points between them, where the level of Hires and the Quits Rate (a calculation derived from the JOLTS estimates) are included as two of the 19 factors in the LMCI. Though the latter was revised somewhat higher over the past few months, it [...]

Defining Labor Economics

By |2017-04-25T18:02:34-04:00April 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economics is a pretty simple framework of understanding, at least in the small “e” sense. The big problem with Economics, capital “E”, is that the study is dedicated to other things beyond the economy. In the 21st century, it has become almost exclusive to those extraneous errands. It has morphed into a discipline dedicated to statistical regression of what relates [...]

A Lot of Noise Where Noise Really Shouldn’t Be

By |2017-04-11T18:27:42-04:00April 11th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since there isn’t any detectable acceleration in wages or earnings, the plateau across the JOLTS data dating back to various points in 2015 is therefore not likely to be related to the presumed end of labor market slack. Even if the unemployment rate were a valid and relevant interpretation of “full employment”, there would be no reason why businesses might [...]

Was There Ever A ‘Skills Mismatch’? Notable Differences In Job Openings Suggest No

By |2017-03-16T19:30:11-04:00March 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps the most encouraging data produced by the BLS has been within its JOLTS figures, those of Job Openings. It is one data series that policymakers watch closely and one which they purportedly value more than most. While the unemployment and participation rates can be caught up in structural labor issues (heroin and retirees), Job Openings are related to the [...]

Talking About Drugs Backward

By |2017-03-01T16:39:01-05:00March 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The greatest mistake any statistician can make is to confuse correlation for causation. It is quite natural to do so, of course, a limitation not limited to modern society where information can at times seem limitless. There are also cases where you are left with little other alternative. But within them requires even more robust evidence and more thorough examinations, [...]

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