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From JOLTS Series Shift To Series of Rate Cuts

By |2019-10-09T12:29:58-04:00October 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve said all along that they would be dragged into them kicking and screaming. After all, the Federal Reserve undertook its last rate hike in December 2018 – just as the markets were making clear he was completely mistaken in his view of the economy. What followed was the ridiculous “Fed pause” which pretty much everyone outside of the central [...]

Labor Data Dependent

By |2019-09-10T17:24:26-04:00September 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right now, everything comes down to the labor market. Does the US economy hang on despite stubborn and evidently non-transitory overseas turmoil cross currents? Or do American consumers rightly confident of the economic situation re-assert themselves via their wallets and deliriously spend the economy back on track? You better believe Fed Chairman Jay Powell will be watching the data very [...]

Weakening Labor Market Now In All The Data

By |2019-08-06T12:24:20-04:00August 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The JOLTS series had always been a seemingly superfluous set of labor numbers for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The agency wanted to go deeper into employment when it originally presented these other series in 2002. The unemployment rate seemed accurate enough, but it came at the labor market solely from the view of labor supply. As the BLS [...]

Labor Slowdown Already; Another Account Falls In Line of May 29

By |2019-04-11T16:41:00-04:00April 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

May 29. May 29. May 29. It keeps showing up everywhere. Not only does it appear as an inflection on so many important market charts, we keep finding it in economic accounts, too. There is so much to corroborate what can only have been a real and striking event. This contrasts, of course, with the mainstream narrative. Last year the [...]

Why Hysteria Died, In One Day

By |2018-08-01T16:02:53-04:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why did inflation hysteria die? The answer is surprisingly simple. Proponents way oversold the thing. They kept claiming that the labor market, via a truly booming economy, would force the Fed’s hand. Wage growth was about to explode, therefore monetary policy couldn’t afford to be complacent. Aggressiveness was about to become Jay Powell’s go-to position. This year is now more [...]

Proving The ‘L’ In Labor

By |2018-06-06T12:15:56-04:00June 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in 2011 and 2012, apple growers in the state of Washington got the government there to declare an emergency. They were expecting a record or near-record crop of fruit but they just couldn’t find enough workers to harvest it all. Faced with a potentially devastating labor shortage, Washington’s governor turned to convicts. I wrote about it in 2013 and [...]

There Aren’t Two Labor Markets

By |2018-04-13T17:35:50-04:00April 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Allusions to a labor shortage continue to be ubiquitous. Two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal published yet another such story under the headline Iowa’s Employment Problem: Too Many Jobs, Not Enough People. Ostensibly about the experiences of companies trying to hire in the one state, the implication was clear enough. If Iowa, IOWA, has a labor shortage, how bad [...]

Choosing the Right Curves

By |2018-03-20T13:44:29-04:00March 20th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The background for inflation hysteria was pretty simple. Globally synchronized growth meant acceleration in the US economy which would raise demand for labor. The unemployment rate, faulty as it has been, suggests that any further increase in labor utilization would just have to pressure wages – the competition for workers rises as the marginal supply of them dwindles further downward [...]

Which One Really Belonged On Yellen’s Dashboard?

By |2018-01-10T17:19:32-05:00January 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The latest JOLTS survey from the BLS suggests nothing much has changed from that particular view of the labor market. The level of estimated Job Openings (JO) while down slightly over the last few months remains exceedingly high. By contrast, the rate of monthly Hires (HI) continues to be subdued, if at the high end of its recent range extending [...]

Severe Jolt In JOLTS

By |2017-12-11T19:01:12-05:00December 11th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The biggest proponents of the BLS data have been FOMC policymakers. Right from the taper tantrum of 2013, the unemployment rate has given them, and the Economists who depend on their views for crafting their own, an almost definitive set of parameters for interpreting all other economic statistics. Everything is immediately filtered through the lens of the unemployment rate and [...]

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