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Finally Some Real Data…For November

By |2019-02-01T15:49:49-05:00February 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown. However, since nobody follows it and the figures relate to a lot that’s beyond the US economy it doesn’t count in the mainstream view. That’s a shame because TIC will tell you [...]

Revisiting Hong Kong (For Reasons We Wish We Wouldn’t Have To)

By |2019-01-17T17:48:21-05:00January 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is perhaps the perfect day to review what’s going on in Hong Kong (thanks J. Fraser). I’ll be in Vancouver over the weekend to talk about curves, so why not preface it with a little HKD update. With everyone focused elsewhere, the story of 2017, in my view, wasn’t so big in 2018. For reasons that will further disturb [...]

Your Semi-Annual Golden Week Reminder

By |2018-09-25T11:56:06-04:00September 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s that time of year. September, the leaves start to turn and the air grows crisp. Autumn smells arrive; the Chinese prepare for their nationalist Golden Week. Ever since 2014 and the dollar’s rise, that is, eurodollar tightening especially in Asia, these holiday bottlenecks are never boring. To be shut down for an entire week in early October, the banking [...]

One Fragile Year In Review: It Was A Warning

By |2018-09-05T17:46:54-04:00September 5th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One year ago today, something broke. It wasn't a big thing, practically a footnote seemingly not worth mainstream attention. Out of nowhere, the 4-week T-bill yield spiked. On Friday, September 1, 2017, the equivalent interest rate for the instrument was steady at 96 bps. That was already a problem because the Federal Reserve’s RRP was at the time set for [...]

On Which Side Is HKD?

By |2018-08-15T12:35:44-04:00August 15th, 2018|Currencies, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In early March, the CEO of Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) Norman Chan issued a press release claiming among other things his quasi-central bank had more than enough reserves to defend the lower edge of the Hong Kong dollar’s (HKD) monetary band. In trying to settle what was clearly upset markets and not just those in and around Hong Kong, [...]

What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

By |2018-08-08T12:35:57-04:00August 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 [...]

Very Loud Globally Synchronized Rhymes

By |2018-08-08T12:00:59-04:00August 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Globally synchronized growth has taken a beating so far in 2018. As a narrative, one factor after another has turned against it. Europe was booming and was even going to be in a leadership position for the global economy. Now? Not so much. The dollar would continue to fall just as it did in the years before Bear Stearns, a [...]

The Quarks and Quirks of CNY’s Big Drop

By |2018-07-25T13:04:08-04:00July 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 1962, physicist Wolfgang Panofsky finally obtained funding from the Atomic Energy Commission. As a faculty member at Stanford University he wanted the federal government to fund his monster. Dubbed Project M, for monster, Dr. Panofsky was seeking a method for scientists to obtain evidence for what was really going on inside the atom. The project was really a linear [...]

TIC Confirms Pretty Much Everything

By |2018-07-18T17:39:55-04:00July 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Russian ruble has fared far and away much better than its EM peers. Compared to something like the Brazilian real, there is no comparison. The ruble has been relatively steady following an initial drop in April with the imposition of sanctions. April 19 came and went, and while that date is displayed prominently across all the key currencies it [...]

China Reopens With Another Sneeze

By |2018-06-19T19:22:00-04:00June 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it seemed a bit calmer yesterday in global markets than has become typical, it was likely due to the absence of Chinese influence. China’s markets were closed for the country’s annual Dragon Boat festival, a holiday tradition that supposedly dates back 2,000 years. According to state media, it’s not strictly Chinese any longer. The celebrations have apparently spread all [...]

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