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Hong Kong, China, And The Nightmare of Forex Piles

By |2018-04-13T19:35:35-04:00April 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Very early on in the turn, I mean very early, you could already tell there were substantial problems underneath. By the time CNY started lower, against all expectations, there had already been serious signs of trouble in China for months by then. In that initial seemingly minor drop in early 2014, the PBOC’s actions belied a stable system. If you knew [...]

Some Helpful Swaps Geography

By |2018-03-23T16:49:21-04:00March 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation hysteria in some places hasn’t just faded, it has disappeared almost entirely. The old saying is that shooting stars burn out the fastest. One of the hottest systems was in Europe. The ECB, we were told, had done it. Even though QE hadn’t achieved anything of substance in its first or second year, the third was apparently the charm. [...]

Just A Few More Pips

By |2018-03-22T17:30:40-04:00March 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Central Banker Crisis Handbook it states very clearly, “do not make it worse.” It’s something like the Hippocratic oath where monetary authorities must first assess what their actions might do to an already fragile system. It’s why they take great pains to try and maintain composure, appearing calm and orderly while conflagration rages [...]

Was January A More Complete Dollar Inflection?

By |2018-03-19T17:51:35-04:00March 19th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Friday, January 26, stocks hit their last record highs. Buoyed by supposedly strong earnings along with near euphoria about tax reform anecdotes, all three major US indices were sitting at their respective tops after another big week. Everything was apparently going in the right direction: All the three key U.S. indexes closed at record levels on Friday following better-than-expected earnings [...]

China’s Questionable Start to 2018

By |2018-03-14T18:31:15-04:00March 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese government reported estimates for Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) for both January and February 2018. The National Bureau of Statistics prepares and calculates China’s major economic statistics in this manner at the beginning of each year due to the difficulties created by calendar effects (New Year Golden Week). Despite this attempt to offset them, [...]

China Exports: Trump Tariffs, Booming Growth, or Tainted Trade?

By |2018-03-09T15:26:29-05:00March 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s General Administration of Customs reported that Chinese exports to all other countries were in February 2018 an incredible 44.5% more than they were in February 2017. Such a massive growth rate coming now has served to intensify the economic boom narrative. A strengthening U.S. recovery is helping underpin China’s outlook as Asia’s biggest economy seeks to cut excess capacity [...]

What About IDR?

By |2018-03-06T17:25:03-05:00March 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On October 31, 1997, the IMF announced a rescue for Indonesia. Though it was Thailand who caught the Asian flu first, it was this latter country where a monetary line in the sand was drawn. Nobody wanted to find out what a complete wipeout of the Indonesia rupiah might mean for financial conditions across Asia. Included in that category of [...]

Chart of the Week; This One’s Easy

By |2018-03-02T13:08:31-05:00March 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What do August 2008, August 2011, and January 2016 all have in common? In pop culture or mainstream news, I’m not sure you could find any consistent link between those precise periods. Even in economics, it’s not quite as uniform. Those were all forming or beckoning downturns, but all at somewhat different stages of them. More specifically along those lines, [...]

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