The initial estimates for Black Friday spending are pretty grim; you can make that interpretation based only on the press releases themselves as neither of the words “strong” or “robust” appear in them. According to ShopperTrak, actual sales (mall sales) on Black Friday itself were up almost 15% from last year but only because there was a clear revulsion against [...]
In the fourth quarter of 2007, WalMart became the first retailer in history to surpass $100 billion in quarterly sales. It was an impressive feat despite growing unease over what were then considered (by the vast majority of economists) unrelated matters of the financial economy (subprime was “contained”). Overall, sales had grown 8.3% (including membership fees to Sam’s Club), though [...]
It’s amazing to see how far standards have shrunk given this cycle. Because monetary policy has been so active in the past five years, including ZIRP and numerous QE’s, there is a mindset settling into the mainstream commentary that this is the best that can be achieved. It’s not even a “new normal”, it’s something far more sinister in that [...]
The big news this morning seems to have been Best Buy’s “shocking” numbers. The narrative now is likely to get refocused, as the wagons will be circled and Best Buy’s horrid results will be blamed on idiosyncrasies. However, Best Buy was not the only retailer to report a disastrous holiday period, it’s the only one that has gained wide attention. [...]
As is usually the case, ShopperTrak was cautiously optimistic about holiday retail sales for 2012. In September 2012, the firm estimated total spending growth to be about 3.3% above 2011, with a more modest 2.8% increase Y/Y in foot traffic. By January 2013, it appeared as if total retail sales only grew at a 2.5% rate. That was down from [...]
While everyone gears up for the holiday season, particularly the Christmas break, economists and retailers are on the edge of their computer screens trying to determine and gauge the health of the economy. Is QE finally working? The latest retail sales figures seemed to have provided some optimism toward that conclusion. But this is also the time of the year [...]
With a view on credit and dollar markets, there is already the unsettling prospect of markets moving beyond unshakable belief in the efficacy of monetary intrusions. I cannot help but wonder if that is beginning to extend into the real economy as well. There can be little but retribution over the growing disaster that is the holiday sales season. Stock [...]
The BEA estimated that GDP in Q3 accelerated to 2.8% over Q2 2013, coincidentally matching the Q/Q growth rate from Q3 2012 (more on that in a moment). The largest “boosts” to GDP came from tumbling imports and growing inventories. Those two segments accounted for 1.2% in additional “growth” over Q2. While inventories rose and consumers and businesses bought less [...]
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