The payroll report disappointed again, though it was deficient in ways other than are commonly described. The monthly change is never a solid indication, good or bad, as the BLS’ statistical processes can only get it down to a 90% confidence interval, and a wide one at that. It means that any particular month by itself specifies very little, except [...]
Today’s bland payroll report did little to suggest much of anything. All the various details were left pretty much where they were last month, and all the prior trends still standing. The headline Establishment Survey figure of 235k managed to bring the 6-month average up to 194k, almost exactly where it was in December but quite a bit less than [...]
The Federal Reserve reported this week that consumer credit increased by $24.5 billion in November, the largest expansion since August and one of the biggest monthly changes in the data series. Non-revolving credit was actually subdued at least as compared to what has become typical. Revolving credit, on the other hand, surged by $11 billion. That was nearly as much [...]
With two months of an increasing index, the Federal Reserve’s alternate, comprehensive factor model for the labor market turned negative again for December 2016. The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) was down 0.3 points after gaining an upwardly revised 2.1 in November. Though there are 19 components in the overall index, the lackluster headline number for the Establishment Survey as [...]
The primary symptom of the economic malaise or depression that has developed since the Great Recession (which wasn’t a recession) is an economy that works less and thus earns less. Such a condition would suggest a shrunken system or at least vastly diminished potential. That much is well-established even in the orthodox literature though it isn’t ever talked about publicly. [...]
On June 6, Janet Yellen spoke to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia in what were highly scrutinized comments. The occasion was just a weekend in between the May payroll report that clearly unnerved her and the rest of the FOMC. Prior to that BLS publication, it was believed that a rate hike in June was all but set. Afterward, [...]
The BLS updated its productivity estimates yesterday to incorporate the BEA’s slight upward revision in GDP for Q1 2016. The changes to the productivity series were also small, where the initial estimate was for -1% (annualized) US labor productivity now revised to -0.6%. Private output, the BLS’s matching point in the BEA GDP series, was revised slightly higher to 0.86%. [...]
The BLS released its updated productivity estimates showing that Q1 2016 was negative for the second straight quarter and the fourth of the past six. Such negative and flat productivity in any real sense doesn’t make sense. This disparity seems to be, as always, in the BLS serially overstating the employment gains. The level of increase in total hours worked [...]
When real household spending fell by 4.6% in April 2014 it was cause for concern. That was the first month after the tax hike hit and the decline in spending was much larger than anticipated (by economists, at least). Despite the heavy toll, Bank of Japan officials remained (outwardly) wholly unconcerned over what was believed a minor setback on the [...]
Since Q1 GDP was revised lower by almost 1% that meant estimates of productivity were going to be even more out of alignment than they were at the first release. Of course, in a less massaged environment productivity might have preserved some sense if there was less rigidity from the BLS on the employment side. In other words, when “output” [...]
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