household spending

Speaking of Japan’s Attention

By |2020-11-18T19:44:17-05:00November 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Speaking of Japan, it’s not difficult to figure out why Japanese banks might seek some small pittance from diving back in the choppy waters of eurodollar redistribution. Conditions at home, particularly since the middle of last year (right when the big turn Tokyo dollars came up), have been, to put it mildly, way less than ideal. Politicians listening to central [...]

What Happens When Central Banks Buy Stocks (ETFs)? Well, We Already Know

By |2020-03-11T13:03:58-04:00March 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Can we please dispense with all notions that monetary policy works? Specifically balance sheet expansion via any scale asset purchase programs. Nowhere has that been more apparent than Japan. Go back and reread all the promised benefits from BoJ’s Big Bang QQE that were confidently written in 2013. The biggest bazooka ever conceived has fallen short in every conceivable way. [...]

Japanese Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

By |2020-02-18T17:01:24-05:00February 18th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They put it off so long they backed themselves into this corner. The Japanese government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had originally scheduled two VAT tax hikes as part of the rollout for Abenomics. It would be inflationary and fiscally responsible all in one pass. To make sure Japan’s perpetually struggling economy could absorb any fallout from them while still [...]

Another Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

By |2019-11-18T12:50:44-05:00November 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Earlier this month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan had reported an enormous surge in household outlays. For the month of September 2019, the Japanese had splurged on everything from big ticket items to regular discretionary products. Total spending in the month was up 9.5% year-over-year in real terms, an enormous increase which had been the fastest pace ever recorded in [...]

Insight Japan

By |2019-01-11T16:41:13-05:00January 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, more so economy, the predictable [...]

Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

By |2018-12-07T16:18:46-05:00December 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results. It’s actually worse than that since all that I’m [...]

BoJ On 2.3%: ‘the decline in the unemployment rate is insufficient’

By |2018-11-06T16:06:39-05:00November 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The 21st century central banker is a unicorn chaser. This has happened by default, a product of too little success despite ever-increasing interventions. In fact, the bigger these policy intrusions become the more likely it is the central bankers will attempt to turn something small into something big. It doesn’t matter that economies are noisy by nature. The best example [...]

Not Stealth Taper, Scared Taper

By |2018-09-21T15:49:14-04:00September 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Just like Jay Powell is surely hoping for some help from Mother Nature, the central bankers at the BoJ have to be wishing for more on their side of the Pacific. The US Federal Reserve will be looking for a repeat of last year’s Harvey and Irma effects out of Florence. It looks like they’ll need them. Japanese officials have [...]

Japan’s Not Really A Domino, Though The Timing Is Right

By |2018-09-07T17:41:19-04:00September 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This year is just different. Increasingly so. Not just in one or two places, either, but in way too many places. In Japan, for instance, real Household Spending rose by the smallest amount in July, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Japan. In 2017, this would have been a worrisome sign. In 2018, it counts as one of the [...]

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