housing bust

Durable Goods May Not Actually Show Recession, And That Is The Worst Case

By |2016-03-28T13:14:31-04:00March 28th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Orthodox economic theory assigns recession to some exogenous “shock.” Without it, an economy is supposed to grow indefinitely along its trend or potential baseline so long as NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is maintained. As you can imagine, economists and policymakers spend most of their time on that latter part which is one reason, though more so ideology, that [...]

Starting The Year In Deeper Uncertainty

By |2015-01-02T12:32:43-05:00January 2nd, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy|

The rash of “unexpected” declines in PMI’s this morning in the US, of all places, seems to have abraded at least somewhat the pervasive belief in the American “decoupling.” As I have said before, I afford little validity to PMI’s as anything other than potentially a relative measure of changes, not magnitudes, in shorter-term circumstances. That is why the most [...]

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