housing

Housing Slump Continues

By |2018-09-20T18:00:36+00:00September 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) today picks right up where we left off yesterday. The Census Bureau had reported another month suggesting a rough spot in real estate. More recent housing data isn’t encouraging, either. The lower the unemployment rate goes, the main emphasis of this “boom”, the worse the housing market becomes; not [...]

Falling Starts

By |2018-07-18T15:32:04+00:00July 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Home construction estimates are notoriously variable. They can change oftentimes by a substantial amount on a month-by-month basis, and the numbers are just as frequently subject to serious revisions in the short run. Still, we have to note when there are big moves even in these high frequency series, though keeping in mind no definitive [...]

Laboring Unnecessarily Over Housing Imbalances

By |2018-05-24T18:30:22+00:00May 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are three major housing related data series published each and every month. The first is on construction of new units, the intersection of real estate and the macro economy compiled by the Census Bureau. The second is the number of newly built single-family homes that have been sold, relating obviously to the level of [...]

QE Through The Housing Channel

By |2018-04-23T12:15:24+00:00April 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Even after several years of them, monetary policymakers continued to tread carefully with large scale asset purchases (LSAP). Otherwise known as quantitative easing (QE), in the US they were first announced all the way back in the darkest days of global financial panic in 2008. Yet, in 2012 and 2013 concerns remained that they could [...]

After December In Housing, No Miracle

By |2018-01-25T17:46:46+00:00January 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While there are those who saw October and more so November spikes in real estate and housing estimates as the beginning of the something big, all the December 2017 statistics suggest nothing more than the easily anticipated hurricane anomalies. Housing construction was back in line with weaker earlier 2017 estimates (particularly starts), while resales were, [...]

Housing Construction, Hurricanes or No?

By |2018-01-19T18:55:24+00:00January 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The August appearance of Hurricane Harvey has made economic analysis a little more challenging than usual. That it was followed closely by Hurricane Irma only compounded the difficulty. What we have observed, however, is pretty much what we expected. In several economic categories and among various statistics, there was a rush of activity in October [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

By |2018-01-02T17:19:29+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact - positive and negative - from the hurricanes a few [...]

New Home Sales, Neither Prices Nor Volume

By |2017-11-27T19:04:06+00:00November 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New home sales rose sharply again for the second consecutive month. After rising more than 18% in the month of September 2017 over August (subsequently revised down to 14%), sales rose another 6% month-over-month in October. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 685k, that’s the highest pace for any month going back exactly ten years [...]

(A)Typical At The Bottom

By |2017-11-21T17:12:34+00:00November 21st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates sales of existing homes rose 2% in October 2017 from a downwardly revised September estimate. The trade group tries its best to put recent results in the best possible terms, claiming in its press release that at 5.48 million (SAAR) the number of resales is “their strongest pace [...]