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hysteresis

Neither Keynes, Trump, Pumps Nor Priming

By |2021-04-19T17:24:34-04:00April 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Then-President Trump was eager to talk in May 2017. Having been elected in 2016 by giving voice to what he called the “fake” unemployment rate on the campaign trail, and therefore mobilizing millions of the disaffected uncounted by that official ratio’s official definitions, it was enough to put him just barely over the top. To continue with the agenda, to [...]

The Austerity Path

By |2018-02-05T13:00:58-05:00February 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What happened to the recovery? It’s a complex question with a surprisingly simple answer. The density of the topic, particularly entangled as it was in close proximity to the calamity of the Great “Recession”, clouded the diagnosis. If you ask ten different academic economists you might get ten different answers, though I suspect seven or eight of them would be [...]

This Is Economics (Capital ‘E’)

By |2016-11-29T17:52:20-05:00November 29th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I think it necessary to qualify and clarify the conventional stance on the unemployment rate. In the mainstream, as noted yesterday, it has been something of an absolute. The lower it goes the more provocative the rhetoric on the positive side. After all, an economy at full employment cannot possibly be unhealthy, can it? That has been the great dividing [...]

The Question Is Not A Difficult One To Answer

By |2016-01-29T15:42:21-05:00January 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At what point do we accede back to logic and rational thought? The Bank of Japan is “forced”, not my word, to unleash negative nominal interest rates and that is taken as a positive for everyone everywhere. Such a move is, without question, an open admission that QQE failed and failed spectacularly (since it was even expanded not really that [...]

ECB, Monetarism and a Greek Half-Decade

By |2015-06-29T11:20:42-04:00June 29th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Greece really should not matter, at all, outside of the tragic plight of the Greeks themselves. You’ll see that message echoed particularly inside the US where the status quo takes a contradictory turn toward reasonableness in order to justify further what isn’t. This is all about asset prices and how they have been so skewed almost everywhere that when one [...]

The Problem Is Accumulating Accumulation

By |2015-06-22T16:26:26-04:00June 22nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The home market may literally be testing the notion that interest rate manipulation has the net effect of pulling forward demand. Existing home sales, as tabulated by the National Association of Realtors, surged in May to a new six-year high. That sounds like terrific news about a rebound in the real estate market after quite a rough period dating back [...]

Liquidity And Manipulated Prices Are Not An Economy And Never Will Be

By |2015-06-19T10:40:44-04:00June 19th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Greek drama seems to have reached somewhat of a boundary, with deadlines and credit assistance drawing toward maximums. If this seems more than a little déjà vu that’s because it is an almost exact replay of 2012; all that is missing at this point is another default (debt swap or however it shall be classified). Greek banks have been [...]

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