imports

A Long Dollar Story: China’s Short Profits, Prices, and Producers

By |2018-09-10T16:59:18+00:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first half of the Great “Recession”, China and the rest of the EM world seemed immune. It was American subprime mortgages that we were told was causing all the problems, and if European banks had somehow gotten themselves entangled in the rotten real estate mess so much the better for where growth was [...]

Crude Dollar Trade

By |2018-09-05T11:22:46+00:00September 5th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On November 7, 1973, President Richard Nixon addressed the nation via a broadcast television appearance. The topic wasn’t what you might think. Rather than trying to reassure Americans about the unfolding Watergate scandal, Nixon instead attempted to encourage the country about its energy situation. The month before, Egypt and Syria had launched a surprise attack [...]

What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

By |2018-08-08T12:35:57+00:00August 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-07-19T18:59:24+00:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the [...]

US Trade Settles Down Again

By |2018-06-06T15:30:48+00:00June 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US trade is further leveling off after several months of artificial intrusions. On the import side, in particular, first was a very large and obvious boost following last year’s big hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. Starting in September 2017, for four months the value of imported goods jumped by an enormous 8.3% (revised, seasonally-adjusted). Most [...]

What China’s Trade Conditions Say About The Right Side Of ‘L’

By |2018-05-09T12:24:32+00:00May 9th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese exports rose 12.9% year-over-year in April 2018. Imports were up 20.9%. As always, both numbers sound impressive but they are far short of rates consistent with a growing global economy. China’s participation in global growth, synchronized or not, is a must. The lack of acceleration on the export side tells us a lot about [...]