Unwelcome August

By |2018-08-13T16:58:51+00:00August 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

There is just something about August. It is irresistible, apparently, in all the wrong ways. For starters, there are big ones and small ones but somehow they all line up against liquidity and plentiful eurodollar money. In the former class there was, of course, August 9, 2007, August 9, 2011, and August 10, 2015. Even [...]

Simple Very Complex Correlation

By |2018-06-08T12:13:53+00:00June 8th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s amazing how in a world of supposedly separate, closed economies they all seem to congregate anyway toward the same events. In early 2000, the US dot-com bubble ran into its own contradictions, the rationalizations holding it together no longer so tempting to what was for years insatiable investor appetite. Not even a year later, [...]

Baselines Matter Eventually

By |2017-03-20T16:31:40+00:00March 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a stroke of immensely fortuitous timing, India’s largest automaker Tata Motors was able to raise funds by selling bonds on offshore markets. Faced with an increasing cash crunch and unable to finance working capital needs via strictly Indian banks, the company turned to Singapore. On May 10, 2013, Tata raised S$ 350 million (Singapore [...]


By |2015-12-14T11:47:02+00:00December 14th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There isn’t much commentary needed here, as the prices and yields indicate everything relevant and important. I would only add that seeing August 24, October 15 and now the change (in acceleration) in December all add up to something different than the FOMC’s whatever influence. There is no monetary policy reason for the August 24 [...]

The Quick Burn of Balance Sheet Capacity Is the Recovery’s Mangled End

By |2015-11-06T17:13:40+00:00November 6th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or [...]