industry

Rebalancing Decoupled Booms

By |2018-08-01T12:07:19+00:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entire purpose of China’s presumed rebalancing act is supposedly that the country’s economy will no longer be strongly linked to industry. Manufacturing, for export in particular, is what made modern China into an economic powerhouse, transforming a once agrarian subsistence society (thanks to socialism). One need only look at overhead or satellite images of [...]

Globally Synchronized Asynchronous Growth

By |2018-05-16T16:17:26+00:00May 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States rose 3.5% year-over-year in April 2018, down slightly from a revised 3.7% rise in March. Since accelerating to 3.4% growth back in November 2017, US industry has failed to experience much beyond that clear hurricane-related boost. IP for prior months, particularly February and March 2018, were revised significantly lower. [...]

China’s Xi Really Had No Choice

By |2018-04-10T15:50:59+00:00April 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to back off the heated trade rhetoric over the past few months. In a speech drawing intense focus, Xi, while stating nothing that could be taken as definitive, pledged a “new phase of opening up” China’s vast marketplace. China does not seek [a] trade surplus. We have a genuine desire [...]

The Dismal Boom

By |2018-01-24T16:46:48+00:00January 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a fundamental assumption behind any purchasing manager index, or PMI. These are often but not always normalized to the number 50. That’s done simply for comparison purposes and the ease of understanding in the general public. That level at least in the literature and in theory is supposed to easily and clearly define [...]

The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

By |2018-01-02T12:52:14+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal [...]

The Economy Likes Its IP Less Lumpy

By |2017-12-15T16:41:13+00:00December 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production rose 3.4% year-over-year in November 2017, the highest growth rate in exactly three years. The increase was boosted by the aftermath of Harvey and Irma, leaving more doubt than optimism for where US industry is in 2017. For one thing, of that 3.4% growth rate, more than two-thirds was attributable to just two months. [...]

Giant Sucking Sound Sucks (Far) More Than US Industry Now

By |2017-12-05T18:22:44+00:00December 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are two possibilities with regard to stubbornly weak US imports in 2017. The first is the more obvious, meaning that the domestic goods economy despite its upturn last year isn’t actually doing anything positive other than no longer being in contraction. The second would be tremendously helpful given the circumstances of American labor in [...]

Industrial Production Still Reflating

By |2017-11-16T17:16:33+00:00November 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still [...]