Weekly Economic & Market Review
Is the great bear market of 2011 over? Stocks have risen relentlessly this month culminating with a giant 3% move last Thursday. The plan revealed that day to address the European debt crisis is the most often cited reason for the rally but the resilient performance of the US economy, as evidenced by the GDP .. read more
Unintended Consequences
The WSJ has an article about a provision in Dodd-Frank that allows banks to now pay interest on business checking accounts: A little-noticed provision of last year’s financial-overhaul law gave companies something they had long wanted: a way to earn interest on large balances held in bank checking accounts. But now, with the economy weak .. read more
Weekly Economic and Market Review
I spend a lot of time reading the economic tea leaves. Given my well known distrust of politicians and government, it is a bit of ironic that I spend so much time poring over the details of government produced reports but there really is little choice. I also look at privately produced reports such as .. read more
Weekly Economic and Market Review
As I said last week, get ready for some volatility. Stocks most everywhere fell last week but it wasn’t a one way ride. Down Monday, up Tuesday, flat Wednesday, smacked around Thursday and an end of the week rally on Friday. The S&P 500 finished the week down 1.28%. Foreign markets, particularly emerging ones, were .. read more
Are Inflation Expectations Really “Well Anchored”?
This survey would seem to suggest that inflation expectations are not as well anchored as the Fed currently believes: PRINCETON, NJ — Although the Federal Open Market Committee said “inflation is likely to be subdued for some time” after its meeting last Wednesday, 55% of Americans in an April 8-11 Gallup poll are “very concerned” .. read more
Expectations
Every year around this time, market strategists break out their crystal balls and economists dust off their models (which amount to the same thing) and try to predict the course of the markets and economies for the next year. Why they persist in this activity when everyone knows it is a waste of time is .. read more
Inflation?
The April FOMC meeting statement had this to say about the prospects for inflation: In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. When the Fed speaks of “increasing economic slack here and abroad” they are implicity endorsing a Phillips curve/output gap view of the world. In .. read more
