inflation expectations

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2018-08-02T09:20:03+00:00August 1st, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10-year Treasury yield punching [...]

What A Difference A Few Months Make, Highest Inflation in Six Years And Market Shrugs

By |2018-06-12T12:29:15+00:00June 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What a difference a few months make. Perhaps given all that has happened since January people have regained some badly needed perspective. The core of inflation hysteria was the belief the economy was about to take off which would exacerbate underlying price pressures. That would necessitate more aggressive Federal Reserve reaction, corroborated by an epic [...]

Reframing Doves And Hawks

By |2018-05-25T12:23:02+00:00May 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the minutes of the March 2018 FOMC meeting were released on April 11, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a non-voting alternate member, immediately objected to one statement contained with them. According to Bullard’s version, the notation that “all participants” agreed further rate hikes were necessary was incorrect. He was and remains opposed to [...]

It’s Not The Minutes, It’s The Months and Years

By |2018-05-23T16:14:50+00:00May 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s the kind of thing you’re supposed to overlook and not think too deeply about. Recall the basis of inflation hysteria: the economy was poised to take off and do so convincingly; that plus the ubiquitous LABOR SHORTAGE!!! meant that wages then inflation were going to break out higher; accelerating consumer prices were then to [...]

Someone Is On Drugs, Alright

By |2018-05-03T18:10:34+00:00May 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second straight quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates US productivity growth was less than 1%. That’s not surprising given the weakening in output as measured by GDP, the data reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Productivity is the bridge between the BLS’s labor numbers and the more general economic [...]

For All That Seems To Go Right, What’s Always Missing?

By |2018-01-22T19:33:34+00:00January 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On April 29, 2011, the US benchmark oil price (WTI) surged above $113 per barrel. It wasn’t just American oil prices, either, as other benchmarks around the world were on a huge run. It was the highest for crude oil in three years, going back to the weeks immediately following Lehman. At that price, more [...]

No, No, This 2% Is Different From All Those Others

By |2018-01-10T17:32:20+00:00January 10th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIPS market corollary to interest rate case impatience is overhyping any round number that might in isolation appear to confirm the bias. To reiterate the mistaken assumption: if you believe that economic growth just happens, then given how much time has passed since that was true or apparent you have to believe each long [...]

COT Blue: Nobody Buys a Dead Horse

By |2018-01-02T18:02:57+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

FRBNY’s December 2017 Primary Dealer survey results aren’t yet published, so we will have to wait a few days for the collection of those banks’ economists to tell us what they think their own traders likely won’t do. It’s a mess in that situation, but one as old as the crisis. Nevertheless, Economists for some [...]

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