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inflation expectations

Some Important Tips on ‘Inverted’ TIPS

By |2021-02-23T17:05:12-05:00February 23rd, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sell-off. No, rout. Heck with that, Armageddon! It really had been that hysterical at times, and not just because it was declared a foregone conclusion. Certainly a big part of it, the faux certainty, more than that the gross overhyping of what really had been a relatively small change; the whole mainstream was afire with an inflationary mountain fashioned from [...]

Forty-Seven Explains Much

By |2021-02-12T18:57:36-05:00February 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For Jay Powell’s inflation case, the University of Michigan provided it with some badly needed support. Telling the world he “flooded” it with “digital money printing” three-quarters of a year ago, actual inflation rates have instead fallen down to or near historic lows. No biggie, those in Powell’s corner say, just a matter of time before this changes (commodities!), possibly [...]

Inflation, Reflation, Or Something Else?

By |2021-01-04T19:25:12-05:00January 4th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is there a difference between inflation or reflation, and whatever this is? Not mere semantics, it may be everything for what the future ultimately looks like. Yet, the only one ever talked about is the first, as if a foregone conclusion. Why?We’re conditioned to believe in only one or the other, recession still contracting or otherwise total recovery, on top [...]

Messing Gold

By |2020-12-16T19:43:42-05:00December 16th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They really got carried away, though in the context of that time there seemed any number of legitimate reasons for this. Gold investors were bidding up the precious metal like there was some kind of shortage, the price in dollars making a new record high (LBMA morning fix) on August 7. The way it was reported in the mainstream, this [...]

Act II: The Lie Unwinds

By |2020-12-11T17:53:28-05:00December 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been said that you can’t please everyone all the time. But can you fool enough people some of the time? That’s Jay Powell’s game in a nutshell. He’s got the world believing the Federal Reserve is out here printing gobs of money and sending a tidal wave careening throw the whole economy (stock market first). Nope. Monetary policy is [...]

Inflation Hysteria #2 (TIPS, Swaps)

By |2020-12-08T18:23:20-05:00December 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was only three years ago, so you’d think narratives today would at least try to account for relevant recent history. If that prior first fit of inflation hysteria had a birthdate, it would’ve probably been December 18 or 19, 2017. On the former, the US House of Representatives passed their version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA); [...]

Bursting A Few Bubbles; No, Not That One

By |2020-11-17T19:18:32-05:00November 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Presidential election was supposed to have been a big one. Yields were low, or high, based on how whichever expert or financial media article was interpreting the manner of trading in bond markets. You could take your pick; a “blue wave” was bad, as in BOND ROUT!!! due to inflation and potential for even more (how?) spendthrift ways in [...]

Vaccine-phoria

By |2020-11-10T19:51:04-05:00November 10th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What’s interesting about vaccine-phoria is that it’s largely been contained to just the one part of the bond market. Nominal Treasury yields at the long end have surged, while those at the shorter end have moved up a bit, too. Predictably, the calls for the BOND ROUT!!!! have grown, typically referencing the guaranteed end of the so-called 40-year bond “bull.” [...]

Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers

By |2020-11-06T19:55:06-05:00November 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate for that month hit five [...]

COT B-und?

By |2020-11-03T19:38:16-05:00November 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We've been documenting for weeks now how every chart, therefore every market, shows some kind of inflection around and immediately after August 27. This was Jay Powell’s big Jackson Hole fiasco, questions about the global “V” having already multiplied since June were further compounded by the absolute joke that was average inflation targeting. As noted earlier, even Germany’s bund market [...]

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