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inflation expectations

You Know What They Say About The Light At The End Of The Tunnel

By |2022-04-12T17:30:54-04:00April 12th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In any year when gasoline prices rise 18%, that’s not going to be good for anyone except maybe oil companies who extract its key ingredient from out of the ground (or don’t, as the case can be). Yet, annual rates of increase that size do happen. After August 2017 up to and including August 2018, the BLS’s CPI registered a [...]

Media Attention All Over FOMC, Market Attention Totally Elsewhere

By |2022-03-16T20:06:33-04:00March 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve did something today, or actually announced today that it will do something as of tomorrow. And since we’re all conditioned to believe this is the biggest thing ever, I’ll have to add my own $0.02 (in eurodollars, of course, can’t be bank reserves) frustratingly contributing to the very ritual I’m committed to seeing end.We shouldn’t care much [...]

Consumers And Markets Both Agree, It’s Not Consumer Price Inflation

By |2022-03-11T19:36:23-05:00March 11th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What do American consumers know that Jay Powell and the FOMC apparently don’t? Certainly, those voting policymakers at the Federal Reserve are going to start raising their policy rates for political reasons under pressure from politicians facing deeper and deeper economic scrutiny for every dollar higher in crude oil. The Fed, however, can’t extract any additional supplies of black gold [...]

The Money *All* Agrees: Taper Rejection Meets Policy-Error Error

By |2022-02-18T19:02:09-05:00February 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Balance sheet capacity as an intangible (and deeply misunderstood) monetary property is the biggest motivating factor behind changes in or to the offshore, shadow ledger-money reserve system. The eurodollar. Since it is a distributed ledger shared amongst, and kept by, the big-bank global banking cabal, its members’ ability to expand their own individual balance sheets contributes to the overall increase [...]

An October (‘inflation’) Revolution

By |2022-02-16T20:25:23-05:00February 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most Americans understandably have tunnel vision when it comes to the American CPI and what it might portend for their personal circumstances. Gasoline prices and those for anyone trying to buy a car or now rent some kind of shelter, the threat is immediate. From this palpable sense, the word “transitory” today might just seem offensive.Yet, it may prove itself [...]

Federal Reserve’s Own Inflation Expectations Surveys More Agree w/Euro$ Futures Inversion Than Rate Hikes

By |2022-02-14T19:14:27-05:00February 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC is going to hike rates maybe even aggressively. There’s not much dispute on this assumption. Why the Committee might be doing so, that’s a whole detailed debate. The Treasury yield curve is building toward inversion while the crucial (and leading) Euro$ futures curve is already substantially upside down.Both are increasingly confident market bets against the FOMC’s position(s).Jay Powell [...]

Bitcoin Like(s) TIPS

By |2022-01-25T20:16:54-05:00January 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Oil has easily, it appears, rebounded after having moved lower in November. It bottomed out that first big day of omicron fear on December 1 (ironically, or not, the same day the eurodollar futures curve inverted). Since a low of just over $65 (WTI), crude’s front futures price is easily back in the $80s thereby threatening to make January’s US [...]

One Shock Case For ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Reaching A Quarter-Century

By |2021-12-17T20:28:27-05:00December 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the [...]

Taper Rejection

By |2021-12-15T20:17:02-05:00December 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the FOMC, there was no alternative. The CPI’s keep going higher while the unemployment rate continues lower. Those who are Economists and practice Economics’ brand of econometrics, these would be scary times ahead. Inflationary times unless someone puts a stop to them first. Not because of consumer prices today, but because officials are worried consumers are becoming normalized to [...]

FOMC’s Taper Preview: Inflation Fairy

By |2021-12-13T17:59:58-05:00December 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the CPI inching closer to 7% and everyone talking about consumer prices, the FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow can’t be anything else other than inflation. Even if there was something else on the economic horizon, say a material “growth scare”, it’s too late for policymakers since they’d already painted themselves into a narrow corner months ago.If they don’t accelerate [...]

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