inflation

Weekly Market Pulse: An Economic Overview

By |2024-03-18T07:43:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Dare To Be Different

By |2024-03-11T08:01:35-04:00March 10th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky I took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established in the late 19th century to cater to the Winter Colony of wealthy northerners who spent their winters in South Carolina. Today it still caters to [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Questions

By |2024-02-20T08:46:05-05:00February 20th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises

By |2024-01-29T07:30:39-05:00January 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]

Perspective On A New Year

By |2024-01-08T08:00:54-05:00January 7th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some perspective. In the day-to-day, week-to-week, movements of the markets it is easy to forget that we are investing with a timeline measured in years, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The S&P 500 Still Uninvestable?

By |2023-12-03T20:16:58-05:00December 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate|

Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]

Macro: Incomes and Consumption Expenditures — a good report — be careful what you wish for

By |2023-12-01T09:23:49-05:00November 30th, 2023|Markets|

This was a very positive report. The consumer is showing no signs of pulling back or needing to pull back in the near term, buoying GDP and GDP expectations. Interest rates float higher on the news. A quick comment on market dynamics and reactions to releases such as this one. First, everything is relative to expectations. And for a report [...]

Macro: Money Supply

By |2023-11-30T01:51:34-05:00November 30th, 2023|Economy|

It's a mountainous monetary problem. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” -- Milton Friedman This is a real time case study. Color me skeptical about a "soft landing." At the very least , there's likely to be some bumps.   Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or [...]

Macro: Leading Economic Indicators — reflections of 2006?

By |2023-11-20T13:36:10-05:00November 20th, 2023|Economy|

"After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in October." LEI signaling a shallow recession. The index is down 3.3% in the last 3 months and -.8% in October. I hate to compare cycles, but the machine does and there are certainly similarities. The similarities became apparent with the release of CPI last week. In June of 2006 [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Really Peaked?

By |2023-11-20T07:27:19-05:00November 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]

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