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inflation

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04-04:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the US Congress. We have to [...]

No Japan In Wyoming

By |2018-08-24T11:57:23-04:00August 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been a few years since Japan’s top central banker has been invited to Jackson Hole. The Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve is today hosting the opening of its annual symposium. Typically, the introduction is given by the President of the KC Fed and then opening remarks from whomever is Chairman of the FOMC. Outside of those, the [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2019-10-23T15:09:10-04:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different [...]

Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High

By |2018-08-13T18:15:42-04:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overshadowed by the “dollar” last week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS reported the US CPI had increased in July 2018 by the highest rate since December 2011. Running at 2.95% year-over-year, consumer prices accelerated a little from June’s pace. Not only that, the CPI’s core rate of inflation sped up to 2.35%. That was the highest since [...]

They Changed Inflation, At Least

By |2018-07-31T16:17:19-04:00July 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the switch to the 2012 reference, the new fixed dollar comparison makes revisions in the PCE Deflator a bit springier. Lows are a little lower; highs a little higher. At the bottom in 2009 (July), for example, the 2009 reference says consumer price inflation was -1.18%. This new 2012 reference says it was -1.24%. For June 2009, the difference [...]

The Clowns Over The Corrupt

By |2018-07-20T12:28:13-04:00July 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Japan is run by clowns. All of their major moves have blown up in their faces. The NIRP fiasco of January 2016 was one of the most stupendous moments of technical ineptitude ever displayed by a central bank; and that’s saying something, being able to choose from such a long and prominent list of monetary policy errors. [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2019-10-23T15:09:11-04:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the trade wars and the potential [...]

Sentimental Inflationary Reflation

By |2018-07-17T15:36:02-04:00July 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sentiment surveys such as the ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index are not strictly about current levels of production. Even if they were, they still wouldn’t be as straightforward as is presented. Rather, the ISM index or any PMI for that matter is an amalgam of variables ostensibly displaying how economic agents feel these variables are affecting them in any given [...]

COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting

By |2018-07-12T17:34:08-04:00July 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their familiarity with commodities like gold. Backwardation in that market implies a physical shortage. Unlike that precious metal, crude oil is a usable commodity whose value [...]

It’s Taking Too Long, The Boom Didn’t Boom

By |2018-07-12T16:34:28-04:00July 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns. Data is coming in for June 2018, meaning half of this year already recorded and analyzed. It’s not what it was supposed to have been. [...]

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