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initial jobless claims

Do Rising ‘Global’ Growth Concerns Include An Already *Slowing* US Economy?

By |2021-07-22T19:39:00-04:00July 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Global factors, meaning that the wave of significantly higher deflationary potential (therefore, diminishing inflationary chances which were never good to begin with) in global bond yields the past five months have seemingly focused on troubles brewing outside the US. Overseas turmoil, it was called back in 2015, leaving by default a picture of relative American strength and harmony.The rest of [...]

JOLTS Revisions: Much Better Reopening, But Why Didn’t It Last?

By |2021-03-11T19:49:16-05:00March 11th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to newly revised BLS benchmarks, the labor market might have been a little bit worse than previously thought during the worst of last year’s contraction. Coming out of it, the initial rebound, at least, seems to have been substantially better – either due to government checks or, more likely, American businesses in the initial reopening phase eager to get [...]

The Smallest Bit of Empathy For The Swollen Herd

By |2021-01-21T20:12:01-05:00January 21st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why isn’t the inflation monster right upon us? Well, for one, central banks only pretend to do money. But setting that aside, it’s worth asking how even if they did do money, could inflation result given the current conditions? Hard no.It’s a combination of enormous macro slack joining destructive forces with the underside of the permanent income hypothesis. The point [...]

Rising Probability For A Second Payroll Minus (and its implications)

By |2021-01-14T19:50:30-05:00January 14th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Revolving consumer credit declined again in November 2020, according to data released by the Federal Reserve last week. Though the monthly seasonally-adjusted change was small, it still represents significant uncertainty and material mistrust of the underlying economic condition among a broad section of consumers. Those who are paying down their credit card balances, while avoiding taking on higher revolving debts, [...]

Did You Ever Think It Would Reach 42?

By |2021-01-07T19:31:07-05:00January 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Did anyone back when this whole thing started think that by the first week of the new year, 2021, jobless claims would still be significantly higher than every previous record worst level? We aren’t just revisiting the numbers, it’s completely rewriting the circumstances. The “V” hopes were dashed so long ago, and so thoroughly, the letter itself has completely dropped [...]

Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)

By |2020-12-10T19:54:05-05:00December 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had [...]

Don’t Really Need ‘Em, Few More Nails Anyway

By |2020-12-03T18:56:53-05:00December 3rd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The ISM’s Non-manufacturing PMI continued to decelerate from its high registered all the way back in July 2020. In that month, the headline index reached 58.1, the best since early 2019, and for many signaling that everything was coming up “V.” Since, however, it’s been a slow downward trend that, when realizing early 2019 wasn’t exactly robust, only reconfigures the [...]

Weeks of Weak Claims On Growing Claims of Weeks of Weak Demand

By |2020-11-13T19:44:43-05:00November 13th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At some point, the thing actually has to happen. You can only keep talking about the thing for so long before people start to get wise. And most people, especially those in the public who understandably don’t following the thing closely, or the things related to it, are incredibly patient. Time and time again, they prove willing to give experts, [...]

Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

By |2020-11-05T19:33:41-05:00November 5th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way [...]

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