On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in the real, Brazil’s currency (BRL), against the dollar. In order to forestall any further declines, central bank intervention has long been a frontline tool in EM arsenals. But [...]
There is validity in (not “to”) the myth of central banking, one that has important and very serious implications right down the smallest and most immediate terms. The first task of every central bank was currency elasticity, which simply meant the bank would endeavor to supply (at penalty rates, according to Bagehot, such that banks do not fund themselves on [...]
In 1927, physicist Werner Heisenberg wrote in his paper defining the “uncertainty principle” that, “the more precisely the position is determined, the less precisely momentum is known in this instant, and vice versa.” It has also been called the “principle of indeterminacy” which simply means that you can only pick one variable. By doing so, you lose any chance for [...]
If markets have rebounded today after the sustained selloff on fresh “stimulus” hopes, then one would have to wonder immediately what the background fundamentals might be. Setting aside all notions of past “stimulus”, the call for more would seem to suggest, quite strongly, something far, far less than desirable. Yet, in the same breath economists and brokerage firms would have [...]
You wouldn’t know it from stock trading or commodities, but when China reopened after its latest Golden Week holiday there was an obvious effect. Stocks have continued to surge while commodities overall have had a good week (copper up another $0.07 today, with WTI at about $50). Inside the money markets, however, China’s open was met with far less enthusiasm, [...]
By the behavior of the Chinese yuan itself, given the financial size here, we can readily assume that any “dollar” problem that is clearly causing the PBOC’s actions are sizable. Currencies throughout Asia are being roiled not unlike 1997 and oil prices sunk to a new “recovery” low. While that all suggests far away turmoil relevant only to those foreign [...]
Given the outward expression of the “dollar” in various proxies, it is not surprising to see the inward development continue in the same pattern. Interbank rates and estimates are in many cases surging, particularly in the second half of July which matches the acceleration in the outward projections. This direction is nearly uniform, which confirms that the latest “dollar” problems [...]
The “dollar” problems continued this morning as several proxies continued toward new lows. Copper fell to as low as $2.342 (July contract still) while crude is down close to $47 in the front months. The back end of the WTI curve, perhaps more importantly with respect to growth and fundamentals tied to the “dollar”, fell to new lows. The Brazilian [...]
With Greece settled and China moving away, for now at least, from the edge, it appears as if the “dollar” has settled back from the collateral calls of last week. That would make July 15 as seemingly as much of a dud as April 15 was, both in sharp contrast to October 15 and then January 15. That does not [...]
While the outward-facing pieces of the eurodollar puzzle show a little bit of Greek reference, the inward parts seem much more defined by the systemic erosion in liquidity and capacity quite apart from all that. LIBOR and other money rates continue to rise, as do risk spreads. Since the QE system was laid out roughly on liquidity as function, the [...]
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