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interest rates

Toward Rate Cuts: What If The Landmine Was Real?

By |2019-07-01T17:05:31-04:00July 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was supposed to be the Chinese government who was going to rescue the global economy. Once the rationalizations ended and officials around the world realized there was serious economic weakness building at the end of 2018 instead of a globally synchronized inflationary recovery, the green shoots of 2019 were going to be in one big part a fiscal stimulus [...]

Globally Synchronized (Bond Yields)

By |2019-06-21T16:22:29-04:00June 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you have nothing left, it can sound like a winning argument but you have to really try hard enough. In October 2015, with another false dawn dawning on the public, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote and op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal. As had become his habit, it was full of praise – for his own [...]

Curve-sanity

By |2019-06-12T19:01:18-04:00June 12th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are those which are so very clear in their disingenuousness – to the point of overdoing it and becoming obviously absurd. In the increasingly desperate rush to downplay the headlong race to rate cuts, this one’s up there: Eurodollar futures traders, having decided that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut the fed funds target range at least twice [...]

The (Fake) Recovery Behind Record Low Bund Yields

By |2019-06-07T18:03:38-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

No Federal Reserve Chairman under its current configuration can say QE didn’t work. Those words will never pass the lips of whoever it may be occupying that position. The world’s bond markets, however, are trying very hard to make this resistance as uncomfortable as possible. The one thing central bankers here along with everywhere else LSAP's were unleashed could try [...]

Bad Steepening Bills and Europe’s Possible Self-Reinforcing Recession Processes

By |2019-06-04T17:51:35-04:00June 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Normally, it’s a very good sign when the yield curve steepens. If longer-term rates are rising faster than those on the shorter end of the curve, it would say the bond market is forecasting a better probability of normal. Given where interest rates have been the last decade plus, this kind of steepening is what should’ve happened in 2017 if [...]

RIP: BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2019-06-03T16:02:06-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Reality has begun to dawn across Wall Street’s Economists. This year isn’t going to go the way everyone thought. Even as late as last November and December, the optimism was still sharp about how what was taking place at that moment would be nothing more than a transitory soft patch. They still listened to Jay Powell. In its projections for [...]

Trade Wars Will Be The New Subprime

By |2019-05-31T16:29:11-04:00May 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trade wars are rapidly turning into subprime mortgages. A few billion in tariffs will have wrecked the entire global economy, they’ll claim. Just like all that toxic waste subprime mortgage fiasco led inevitably to the Great “Recession” and global panic. Neither will be true, except insofar as both were symptoms of the far greater cause. The other thing actually responsible [...]

Europe Comes Apart, And That’s Before #4

By |2019-05-29T11:33:09-04:00May 29th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In May 2018, the European Parliament found that it was incredibly popular. Commissioning what it calls the Eurobarameter survey, the EU’s governing body said that two-thirds of Europeans inside the bloc believed that membership had benefited their own countries. It was the highest showing since 1983. Voters in May 2019 don’t appear to have agreed with last year’s survey. For [...]

The Potential For Yield Plunge As Dovish Theater

By |2019-05-17T16:43:14-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Two on the same day, likely not coincidence. The next stage of “dovishness” may be upon us. It won’t be rate cuts; those won’t happen until all other excuses have been exhausted first. Jay Powell’s confused gang won’t give in until kicking and screaming there’s really nothing else left. The Fed “pause” isn’t working. To up the ante a bit, [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-10-23T15:08:26-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going well. Stock markets around the [...]

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