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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-07-19T18:59:24+00:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

By |2018-05-21T20:48:14+00:00May 21st, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year - and in future years - due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues

By |2018-03-13T21:05:58+00:00March 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Weak Dollar Stirs A Toxic Stew

By |2018-01-15T17:48:01+00:00January 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Employment We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time - slowly - and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits. The Fed has been talking [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-04-15T19:11:27+00:00April 15th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard Survey based economic reports continue to run counter to real world, actual data. Since the real data tends to lag, an optimist would probably take this as good news. A pessimist would dismiss it altogether as useless survey based data. Me? I'm a realistic optimist. I see the survey based data as [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-03-18T14:14:07+00:00March 18th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data calendar has been light the last two weeks but the tone of the data has generally improved. On the whole though I find it hard to discern a big change in the US economy. The two manufacturing surveys were bright spots in the ongoing manufacturing recession. Empire State and [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2015-11-20T20:55:46+00:00November 20th, 2015|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The economic data continues to come in largely less than expected with the manufacturing/industrial parts of the economy faring worst. In what may be a developing trend, housing starts were less than expected and with last home sales reports makes for a short string of weaker reports. Generally, [...]

The Weekly Snapshot

By |2015-10-16T15:44:14+00:00October 16th, 2015|Alhambra Research, Markets|

Top News Headlines Hillary debates aging hippie Sanders and some other guy. Dell to buy EMC in biggest tech deal ever, assuming bond market is agreeable. Walmart earnings take a dive, stock follows. Gold turns positive for the year. Economic News China trade figures disappoint. US PPI and CPI both negative on the month. Inflation? [...]