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inventory-to-sales

Adjusting Wholesale Sales And Inventory

By |2016-12-12T17:28:28-05:00December 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the estimates for factor orders were released earlier this month, there was an unusual pattern for the revision of September’s preliminary figures. Subsequent data suggested that factory orders were slightly less than had been originally calculated, yet despite that result for the unadjusted data the seasonally-adjusted estimate for factory orders in September was instead revised significantly higher. Overall, the [...]

Still No Growth In Wholesale Sales, Inventories May Start To Weigh

By |2016-11-09T17:42:47-05:00November 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales were flat in September, and flat overall for the quarter. They had declined sharply in July, rebounded in August, only to go nowhere for all the trouble. It is perfectly reminiscent of this whole economy, which fell in 2015 and then despite all projections otherwise never got back up. The best that can be said of it is [...]

The Scale Of Wholesale Economic Loss

By |2016-09-09T16:52:58-04:00September 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The worst month for the wholesale level of the supply chain during the Great Recession was May 2009, just at the tail end of the heaviest part. The amount of sales as well as the calculated decline has moved around somewhat over the years as revisions have rewritten the amplitudes and the ultimate depth of that event, but May 2009 [...]

The Polar Vortex Economy of 2014 Was A Warning; Wholesale Sales Prove It Should Not Have Been Dismissed As Weather

By |2016-06-09T18:08:43-04:00June 9th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesales sales are right back on track again after two months of being affected by the calendar. After rising 0.8% in February and 0.6% in March, sales declined by 5.3% Y/Y in April. For the first four months of the year combined, wholesale sales were down nearly 3% compared to the first four months of last year. Since sales in [...]

Inventory Finally Catching Sales But Not Close To Balance

By |2016-05-10T15:51:50-04:00May 10th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales rose just 0.8% in March, following a similar rise in February. For the quarter, sales dropped almost 2% from Q1 2015. More importantly, inventory barely budged in either March or for the quarter. Rising just 0.2% in the latest month, that was the smallest yearly gain since June 2010. In Q1 overall, wholesale inventories were also practically unchanged [...]

The Great Economic Task Ahead

By |2016-02-09T12:48:53-05:00February 9th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The wholesale level of the supply chain continued its divergence, though it seems increasingly likely that inventories have at least rolled over even if they are still building. Sales fell by 4.2% unadjusted year-over-year while inventories were up only 1.8%. That was the slowest inventory growth since the summer of 2010, but it still leaves the inventory gap as unbelievably [...]

The Cloud of Wholesale Autos

By |2016-01-08T18:12:28-05:00January 8th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Lost amidst the celebrations about the new auto sales record achieved in 2015 was that sales in December were more than disappointing. There were an overwhelming number of articles on the subject, and nearly all of them identical in focusing almost exclusively on 2015 as a whole rather than how sales were at the end. It is entirely understandable, not [...]

Manufacturing Is No 12%

By |2015-12-11T17:49:04-05:00December 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the problems with GDP as a statistical Swiss-Army knife for economic considerations is its very methodology. This doesn’t mean that there aren’t good and sound reasons for that kind of construction and presentation, only that in making such choices some elements are left out; even important pieces. In this case, I refer to the double counting problem which [...]

Inventory Out of Control Everywhere

By |2015-12-10T11:12:18-05:00December 10th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The wholesale economic problem widened again in October, even as the Commerce Dept. reported yesterday wholesale inventories rose at the slowest pace in two years. Overall, non-adjusted inventories rose by 3.6% compared to October 2014, which was less than half the rate of the summer of 2014. But that slowing inventory (which is still GDP negative in the second derivative [...]

Amazingly, Still No Wholesale Improvement

By |2015-11-10T17:31:17-05:00November 10th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The release of wholesale sales for September showed very little change in the stretching condition of sales against inventory. Overall, sales declined year-over-year for the ninth consecutive month and ten out of the last eleven. At -3.6% in October, that compares to yet another gain in inventory, this time +4.5%. That leaves the 6-month average for inventory at +4.6% which [...]

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