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Inventory

Macro: Wholesale Trade: sales and inventories

By |2023-11-10T10:45:06-05:00November 10th, 2023|Economy|

Sales of durable goods at wholesalers remains in decline versus a year ago. The drop is from professional equipment (computers and software) and minerals and metals. Non-durable has returned to growth. The growth is not broad but mostly about petroleum and to a lesser extent, drugs. Durable goods' inventories remain high while non-durable goods inventories have dipped just below the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Real Reason The Fed Should Pause

By |2022-10-10T07:12:05-04:00October 9th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, [...]

It’s Inventory PLUS Demand

By |2022-06-27T20:23:49-04:00June 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just the flood of never-ending inventory. That’s a huge and growing problem, sure, as the chickens of last year’s short-termism overordering finally come home to their retailer roost. Being stuck with too many goods isn’t necessarily fatal to the global and domestic manufacturing sectors.The scale of the burden is one key worry, though equally so is demand. When [...]

Prices As Curative Punishment

By |2022-06-10T18:14:54-04:00June 10th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t exactly a secret, though the raw data doesn’t ever tell you why something might’ve changed in it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed by industry sources, US new car sales absolutely tanked in May 2022. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.7 million, it was a quarter fewer than sales put down in May 2021 and [...]

Simple Economics and Money Math

By |2022-06-09T20:08:48-04:00June 9th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS’s most recent labor market data is, well, troubling. Even the preferred if artificially-smooth Establishment Survey indicates that something has changed since around March. A slowdown at least, leaving more questions than answers (from President Phillips).That as much because of the other employment figures, the Household Survey. April and May, in particular, not just a slowdown but a drop [...]

World Bank Tries Reconciling Rapidly Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-07T20:03:45-04:00June 7th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As it now stands, the World Bank isn’t currently forecasting recession sweeping across the globe. Instead, the organization is merely warning this is a growing possibility. Econometric models abhor making big changes to projections within small timeframes, yet the regressions employed here couldn’t be helped this time.Back in January, at the last issue of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, [...]

“Inflation” Not Inflation, Through The Eyes of Inventory

By |2022-06-07T18:48:32-04:00June 7th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t just semantics, nor some trivial, egotistical use of quotation marks. There is an actual and vast difference between inflation and “inflation.” And in the final results, that difference isn’t strictly or even mainly about consumer prices.Who cares, most people wonder. After all, what does it really matter why prices are going up so far? The pain this causes [...]

More On Less Demand

By |2022-06-06T20:15:28-04:00June 6th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inconvenient timing, to say the least. Auto sales in the US last month were, well, not good. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the government agency responsible for GDP, unit sales of light vehicles tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.68 million in May 2022. That’s the lowest since December, down substantially from a not-too-high 14.50 million [...]

Inventory Flood Continues Just As Consumers Tap Out

By |2022-05-27T19:53:48-04:00May 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it continues to play out the same way, it would be all the worst scenarios lumped together all at the same time. A real unfortunate convergence, yet one that has been entirely predictable. Consumers reaching their absolute spending limits. Warehouse and storage capacity nationwide dwindling to long-time lows, leaving firms no options to store inbound goods. And, of course, [...]

Is It Being Demanded?

By |2022-05-26T19:40:07-04:00May 26th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Shipping container rates have been dropping since early March – right around the time when we had just experienced our “collateral days” and then stood by to witness chaotic financial fireworks, inversions, the whole thing. The bane of the logistical supply-side snafu-ing, it has been container redistribution mucking the goods economy up. The recent and sharp decline in container rates, [...]

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