Inventory

Inflationary Overheating, Tapering and Terminating QE, We’ve Seen These Before And It Didn’t End The Way It Was Supposed To

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-30T12:23:09-05:00December 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economy was in danger of running hot, too hot they all said. In order to stay ahead of such inflation potential, as central bankers saw it, first it would be necessary to wind down quantitative easing. Taper then terminate. After that, rate hikes.Hawks buzzing around everywhere.But Mario Draghi’s ECB had a problem. The inflationary pressures were there, he reasoned, [...]

Sure, Tomorrow the CPI But Future CPI’s In Today’s Inventory?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-09T20:07:18-05:00December 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Empty shelves at the grocery store are an easy way to get likes and clicks. The highest CPI in decades, like there almost certainly will be at tomorrow’s release, relatedly a hot news topic. On the contrary, hardly anyone will publish therefore notice that wholesale inventories during October 2021 increased by the largest monthly amount on record.It just doesn’t fit [...]

Hawks Don’t Become Doves, The Landmine Turns Them Chicken

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-19T12:43:50-05:00November 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At first, it was taken as a sign of relief, of strength and the return of good fortune. So many massive ships each overloaded with containers stacked skyward above their beams were headed to the West Coast, the ports there couldn’t handle the traffic. The boats, and the massive cargoes they carried, themselves packed into a sort of wondrously fascinating [...]

Christmas Comes (too?) Early

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-16T19:01:03-05:00November 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It began all the way back during the summer. Vice President Kamala Harris was in Singapore in August hosting a gathering of business leaders. Supply issues naturally came up, and the VP warned: The stories that we are now hearing about the caution that if you want to have Christmas toys for your children it might be the time to [...]

Demand, Supply, and Landmines, Oh my

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-09T19:40:40-05:00November 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some call it the accordion effect while others refer to it in terms of a bullwhip. Whatever the terminology, the supply chain mess has created a set of perverse incentives leading to a positive feedback loop: the greater the mess, the longer the times for delivery, the more product gets ordered if in only to increase the chance something, anything [...]

GDP Red Flag

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-28T20:15:57-04:00October 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus [...]

What Seems Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-25T17:41:17-04:00October 25th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods. Shortage [...]

One For New Orders, Several More Against

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-01T17:25:42-04:00October 1st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New orders, new orders, new orders. That’s the substance of the inventory cycle. A lot more of them, the upswing in it can remain intact keeping the global manufacturing economy humming along. Should they start to scale back and then, maybe at some point, decline, this unusual supply-constraint trend transitions toward a more historical inventory cycle on the downturn. As [...]

More About Less New Orders

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-09-30T19:26:13-04:00September 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The inventory saga, planetary in its reach. As you’ve heard, American demand for goods supercharged by the federal government’s helicopter combined with a much more limited capacity to rebound in the logistics of the goods economy left a nightmare for supply chains. As we’ve been writing lately, a highly unusual maybe unprecedented inventory cycle resulted (creating “inflation”).The worse the shipping [...]

An Economy Dividing By Inventory And Labor

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-09-29T18:06:07-04:00September 29th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it delta COVID? Or the widely reported labor shortage? Something has created a soft patch in the presumed indestructible US economy still hopped up on Uncle Sam’s deposits made earlier in the year. And yet, there’s a nagging feeling over how this time, like all previous times, just might be too good to be true, too. To start with, [...]

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