investment

Macro: GDP Q3 — Inflationary BOOM!

By |2023-12-21T19:22:58-05:00December 21st, 2023|Economy|

Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years. It was the best real growth quarter since Q2 and Q3 of 2014. The last 12 months has been  mostly about services, here are the biggest contributors to YoY GDP: Consumption of Services Consumption of [...]

Macro: GDP Q3

By |2023-10-26T17:07:34-04:00October 26th, 2023|Markets|

GDP came in hotter than expected. Sequentially, Real GDP grew 4.9%. To say it another way, the annualized growth rate of the quarter over quarter change in GDP, or (Q32023/Q22023)^4. The reason to look at it on a QoQ annualized basis is that you would see a problem in the economy sooner than the YoY numbers. The yoy annual rate [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Positive Feedback Loop?

By |2023-08-14T08:40:34-04:00August 14th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. It has stalled a couple of times and moved sideways - consolidated in Wall Street technical speak - but the trend is obvious (see below). It seems only a matter of time before we break above the [...]

Market Pulse: Mid-Year Update

By |2022-06-20T19:27:59-04:00June 20th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other [...]

GDP Red Flag

By |2021-10-28T20:15:57-04:00October 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus [...]

It Was Bad. The End. (not quite)

By |2020-07-30T18:33:04-04:00July 30th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If that wasn’t the most anticlimactic worst economic quarter in history. The numbers were just as bad as people were expecting – which is the point. It’s not like this economic collapse snuck up on anyone, nor did its scale and depth. We’ve all known from the very beginning what the deal was going to be. Headline real GDP fell [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-04-29T16:58:58-04:00April 29th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Economy|

Economic Reports Scorecard Of the 19 reports released over the last two weeks for which we track a consensus estimate, only four were better than expected. And two of those were the two weekly jobless claims reports. The only other two better than expected reports were the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and the personal income report. We had a run of [...]

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