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China’s Wolf, Not Dragon

By |2019-06-14T17:32:46-04:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Much of the original thesis on economic decoupling surrounded myths of what were believed invulnerable economies. Emerging markets might see some slowing during 2008, but they weren’t supposed to drop off. China was right at the top of everyone’s list, the unstoppable force then transforming the world’s political as well as economic order. In the early months of the Global [...]

China’s Blowout IP, Frugal Stimulus, and Sinking Capex

By |2019-04-17T11:48:52-04:00April 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It had been 55 months, nearly five years since China’s vast and troubled industrial sector had seen growth better than 8%. Not since the first sparks of the rising dollar, Euro$ #3’s worst, had Industrial Production been better than that mark. What used to be a floor had seemingly become an unbreakable ceiling over this past half a decade. According [...]

Anchoring Globally Synchronized Growth, Or We Gave Up Long Ago?

By |2018-05-15T16:58:22-04:00May 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

January was the last month in which China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) specifically mentioned Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) of state holding enterprises (or SOE’s). For the month of December 2017, the NBS reported accumulated growth (meaning for all of 2017) in this channel of 10.1%. Through FAI of SOE’s, Chinese authorities in early 2016 had panicked themselves into unleashing [...]

No Suggestion of Growth, Only L

By |2018-04-17T12:32:08-04:00April 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 1979, Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping designated four areas as Special Economic Zones (SEZ). Three were located in Guangdong Province, the southeastern region that wraps around the city of Hong Kong. One of those, situated just on the other side of the water from the then-British controlled jurisdiction, Shenzhen would be transformed from a sleepy village of 30,000 residents to [...]

Nothing Has Changed In China

By |2016-12-13T16:56:29-05:00December 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment were all taken as better or improving. Industrial production, for example, was 6.2% in November 2016, up from 6.1% in both September and October. Retail sales grew 10.8%, the best rate since December 2015. Fixed asset investment grew by an accumulated rate of 8.3% for the second straight month, better by [...]

China’s State Sector Activity Clarifies The Global Economy

By |2016-09-13T11:22:07-04:00September 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US is not alone in its corporate profit slump. In China, profits at State-Owned Enterprises fell a further 6.5% year-over-year in the January to July period. Estimated to have been RMB 1.31 trillion (about $195 billion), SOE profits are being dragged down by those firms under control of the central government. Locally-administered SOE’s showed net income declining by only [...]

China Stays Close to Recession Which Is Taken As A ‘Surge’?

By |2015-06-11T11:32:51-04:00June 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the month of June 2014, Chinese industrial production rose to 9.2%, which was the highest rate of 2014 to that point. As with the US (as if the US and Chinese economies are related), the Chinese economy in early 2014 seemed to be suffering a bit of a slow patch though there wasn’t the Polar Vortex to divide opinion. [...]

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