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Industrial Synchronized Demand

By |2022-05-10T20:05:48-04:00May 10th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]

It’s The Other What’s Becoming Ironclad

By |2021-11-04T20:22:41-04:00November 4th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was said to be the absolutely perfect scenario (see: below). The vaccines put an end to the pandemic within sight, combined with intractable problems getting any iron out of the ground and then shipped somewhere useful, demand for the commodity was expected to be robust and better while at the same time supply would remain constricted. With American consumers [...]

The Dramatically Shifted Baseline

By |2015-12-07T16:49:42-05:00December 7th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Crude oil prices are exhibiting all the signs of an increasingly difficult funding environment. The front end of the futures curve is being bent dramatically in relation to even close maturities just outside the next few months. Such contango is the obvious imprint of finance, though that is not to say that economic expectations are neutral in the curve. Far [...]

China’s Trade, Dollar and Japan Problems

By |2014-03-10T16:41:57-04:00March 10th, 2014|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So far in China this year there have been defaults and “bailouts” in the credit markets, but they are tiny in relative comparison to everything else. That they have occurred at all is why they have grabbed so much attention. We all have some inkling of the credit and monetary inequities that are roiling inside the Chinese economic gut, but [...]

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