201709.05
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Global PMI Roundup; August 2017

The first few days of any calendar month are now flooded with PMI data. Mostly due to Markit’s ongoing and increasing partnerships, we now have access to economic or business sentiment from and for almost anywhere in the world. It isn’t clear, however, if that is a good or useful development. For example, we can…

201706.23
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No Backing Sentiment

When the price of oil first collapsed at the end of 2014, it was characterized widely as a “supply glut.” It wasn’t something to be concerned about because it was believed attributable to success, and American success no less. Lower oil prices would be another benefit to consumers on top of the “best jobs market…

201705.15
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Staying Stuck

The rebound in commodity prices is not difficult to understand, perhaps even sympathize with. With everything so depressed early last year, if it turned out to be no big deal in the end then there was a killing to be made. That’s what markets are supposed to do, entice those with liquidity to buy when…

201705.01
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Blatant Similarities

Declines in several of the world’s PMI’s in April have furthered doubts about the global “reflation.” But while many disappointed, some sharply, it isn’t just this one month that has sown them. In China, for example, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment indices declined to 6-month lows. While that might be erased next month as…

201609.01
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ISM Summer

Because of the linearity that is presumed a fact of cyclicality, economists and the media continue to be shocked that what seemed like improvement one month doesn’t mean much for the economy in the coming months. And so time and again we find where conditions appear to progress and are thus extrapolated into the long…

201010.03
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Weekly Economic and Market Review

It was a light week for economic data and what we did get served more to confuse than clarify. Market action seems to indicate that the data at this point is basically irrelevant anyway as all the market’s attention is focused firmly on the potential actions of the Federal Reserve. There appears to be a…