The latest government shutdown ended last week, after a mere four days, but that was apparently enough to prevent the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing the January employment report. It will be released this week instead (2/11) but I'd prefer if they waited about six months. These reports are one of the most anticipated by Wall Street and are [...]
Uncertainty around economic policy is near all-time highs with most of that focused on trade policy. Is the uncertainty part of President Trump’s plan? Or part of his negotiating strategy? I have no idea but the effects are obvious and negative, not just for the stock market, but for the economy as a whole. But how negative? I've been getting [...]
There has been a lot of talk over the last few months about the US economy slowing but there is scant evidence of it in the economic data. The latest lack of evidence came last Friday with the release of the September employment report which was quite a bit better than expected. The establishment survey showed the economy added 254k [...]
The ISM manufacturing survey has been below 50 for 15 months in a row and sits today at 49.1. This survey, along with a lot of other manufacturing data and anecdotes, has been cited repeatedly by the economic bears as evidence we are heading for recession. That, of course, hasn't happened and that is consistent with this indicator. Yes, below [...]
At the beginning of the year, the market was pricing in fairly high odds of as many as 5 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, the first one coming in March. Now, just a month later, March appears to be off the table with the odds of a cut down to just 23.5% today. May still shows a [...]
I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow [...]
Stay In Touch