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janet yellen

Yellen Puts The ‘Dollar’ Back On Suicide Watch

By |2015-05-22T15:07:33-04:00May 22nd, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Volatility in UST trading declined a bit in the past few days, as treasury yields became far more settled intraday. While that breaks the exact duplication Monday and Tuesday this week traced from Monday and Tuesday last week, the past two weeks overall remain remarkably similar. And for all the noise, the ups and downs along the way, treasury yields [...]

Kept Afloat With Nothing But Happy Thoughts, Is It Any Wonder The Sinking?

By |2015-05-18T18:11:51-04:00May 18th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Edmund Fitzgerald departed the Burlington Northern Railroad dock in Superior, Wisconsin on November 9, 1975, at about 2:20 in the afternoon. She was carrying a load of taconite pellets to Zug Island in the Detroit River, a rather routine run for this massive ore hauler on the Great Lakes. Only a few minutes after departing, the National Weather Service [...]

Greatly Exaggerated

By |2015-05-10T15:09:43-04:00May 10th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated. Mark Twain Over the last few years I've read a plethora of articles about this supposedly hated bull market in stocks. It is said that this is the most hated bull market in history and while I'd argue with that a bit, it isn't far off the mark. The desire to be [...]

Payroll Friday Strikes Again

By |2015-05-08T11:59:00-04:00May 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the lunacy of “payroll Friday” on full display, it isn’t much of a surprise to get overwhelmed by commentary that totally upends what investing used to be. There once was a mythical relationship that spanned and nurtured between stocks and the real economy. The former was representative about what to expect in the latter, and the latter benefited from [...]

Janet Yellen, A Bear Late and a ‘Dollar’ Short

By |2015-05-06T17:06:20-04:00May 6th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For policymakers a sense of timing doesn’t appear to be among the highest qualities demanded. That certainly applies to almost every economic proclamation that has come out of any central bank globally, as they both fail to ever see forming recession and always proclaim recoveries that don’t happen to exist. It’s not just a matter of jumping the gun, it [...]

A Considerable Transitory Period

By |2015-05-03T14:41:08-04:00May 3rd, 2015|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Transitory: 1. tending to pass away; not persistent 2. of brief duration Transitory is the term the FOMC used to describe the factors that held back the US economy in the 1st quarter. With the GDP report coming earlier in the day the FOMC had no choice but to acknowledge the slowdown but as many seem to be doing, they dismissed [...]

Plausible Deniability

By |2015-04-07T16:53:47-04:00April 7th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The March FOMC statement that caused a serious inflection in so many places was a reality check upon not monetary policy but economic fluency. In some ways it is subtle by design, but the changes made between the policy statement in January and that in March were more obvious and open. I have to wonder how much the then-surging “dollar” [...]

FOMC: Not Only Is There No Recovery, Don’t Ever Expect One

By |2015-03-26T11:34:44-04:00March 26th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Taking a look back at economic projections from orthodox models (and the theories they incorporate and encompass) is more than just a review of past econometric failures. That is the most obvious component as the ability of mainstream models to forecast actual economic conditions is inarguably flawed beyond repair. That calls into question, certainly, current outlooks based upon the same [...]

Hawk, Dove Or Chicken?

By |2015-03-22T17:00:21-04:00March 22nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Janet Yellen threaded the needle this week with a masterfully worded statement following the FOMC meeting. The word "patient", the removal of which had produced so much angst in markets recently, was excised to appease the hawks while the rest of the statement cooed dovishly to appease the stock market bulls. The Fed finally acknowledged reality and downgraded their economic [...]

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